Legacy

So, we've just witnessed one of the more spectacular UPL achievements this year. C-Lauff managed to come awfully close to the Roland Slam, with a 2nd place finish in basketball, and W's in both baseball and football. Of course, the Jabrones are currently in the cellar in basketball, so the threat of the Jabrone Slam (holding 3 consecutive titles, but not in the same calendar year, though the name isn't set in stone - whoever gets there first gets to name it) is slim .

You can probably argue that this is the 2nd best year in the UPL, ever. The gold standard in the UPL is still the O.N. Thugs' magical run in 2003. But C-Lauff in 2008 probably ranks just ahead of the 2007 O.N. Thugs, who won baseball and basketball, and finished 2nd in football. However, the baseball title was marred by a tie with the '90 Reds who caught up on the last day of the season.

The UPL is a little too young to really look at full year performances (plus we don't have enough owners to play all 3 sports for it to be meaningful). However, it is interesting to look at the most dominant teams in the history of the UPL.

Two teams come to mind quickly: The O.N. Thugs' 2004 Baseball and 2007 Basketball.

The '07 Basketball team was scary, scoring 89.5 points (out of a possible 100). They won 4 of the 10 categories, and finished 2nd in 4 other categories. The season was pretty much conceded by the end of January. When you have the 2nd place team wondering when baseball season was starting, with 2 months left in the season, you know that it was a thumping. The season started with a draft day trade w/ C-Lauff, where we swapped positions in the 1st and 2nd rounds. I got Kobe and Amare for CP3 and Tim Duncan. Kobe was awesome. Amare had a huge comeback season after knee surgery. CP3 was hurt for a lot of the season. Deron Williams was drafted a little earlier than expected (in the 6th round), which paid off, though D-Will was traded during the middle of the season. Marcus Camby and Carlos Boozer were fantasy stalwarts, as well.

The O.N. Thugs' 2004 baseball team was probably just as good. They scored 146 (out of a possible 168 points - there were 14 teams in the league that year!). They won an amazing 7 out of 12 categories, and finished 2nd in 2 others. The most interesting question was whether or not the Thugs would cover the spread (of I believe, 25 points), which, sadly, they did not (the 2nd place team finished with 128, 18 points back). This team was built with starting pitching, generally a no-no in fantasy baseball. But the pitchers were Pedro, Unit, and Schilling, back when they all were still lights out pitchers, as they combined to win 53, lose only 29, strike out 720 (!!!), have an ERA around 3, and a WHIP around 1.05. This also was the season that cemented the O.N. Thugs' infatuation with Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn, who were in their 2nd and 3rd full seasons in the majors, and combined for an average of 103 R, 42 HR, 107 RBI, with a .380 OBP and .565 SLG. Pretty good numbers for 10th and 11th round picks.

It's one thing to be dominant. It's another to change the nature of the league.

Westy's 2004 Basketball team was very good, finishing ahead of the pack by almost 2200 points (a little more than 10% above the 2nd place team). KG finished with over 4000 points (with career highs of 24.2 points, 13.9 boards, and 2.2 blocks a game). In fact, this was a team that changed the course of the UPL. For the 3rd consecutive season, basketball had gotten boring, with the teams so far ahead that the last month was pointless. Starting in 2005, we changed the format over to the current 10-category roto style, which has been a much more interesting format, with changes in the standings happening on the last day of the season.

It's hard to really call a football team dominant, given the nature of fantasy football. But, we've had some interesting seasons there, as well. The 2007 JimmyDix squad lost the first 2 games of the season, and then rolled the rest of the way, going 13-1 the rest of the way, with only a tight loss in week 11. The average margin of victory in the last 11 games of the regular season was 47.32 points, even including the loss. No real nail-biters there. The 2003 O.N. Thugs were only 10-4 in the regular season, but scored 264 points more than the nearest competitor, and rolled through the playoffs. And the 2005 I Giocatori team went 11-3 in the regular season, and went through the playoffs as the #1 seed, winning in miraculous fashion in the finals over C-Lauff, who was Washington Redskinned (not very PC, if you ask me).

As we move forward, football will remain a crapshoot. However, with the change to dynasty formats in basketball and baseball, we may see teams be dominant over the course of a longer time span. Of course, given that the O.N. Thugs are currently in 17th place in basketball, this may not be a good thing for us. But then again, who knows?

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Letting the Axe Fall

Well, I guess it was inevitable, but the company I work for banned the Yahoo Fantasy Homepage (and all team pages) from access while at work. Its a frustrating situation, but given the sheer amount of time most employees were spending on the fantasy webpage I'd say it was a necessity productivity-wise. So, a state of the Union, while I watch my season finally end...

League: ....Of Doom
Team: TheJimmyDixSpecials
Record / Points: 4-11 (10th place), 1111pts (3rd highest point average)
Summary: Losing 5 games by less than 8 points was rough. This league was a victim of its early success, as the waiver wire for TE's never got better than an injured Jeremy Shockey and my TE sucked but was still necessary. Neglect and focus on my other two leagues led to me leaving Reggie Bush in despite his injury for two weeks, two losses that eliminated me from the playoffs. The motto for next year will be that less is more - especially with limited time and internet access.

League: GFL
Team: Tatum Bell's Luggage
Record / Points: 7-5-1 (4th place), 1081 (7th place)
Summary: This is my money league, so I'm especially anxious to see how this weekend turned out. Like in the UPL, poor QB selection with high draft picks plauged my team the whole season long. Unlike my other leagues, the GFL maintained a strong sense of parity and the point spread remained tight.

League: UPL
Team: JimmyDixSpecials - various
Record / Points: 6-7 (8th place), 1825 (8th place)
Summary: Whew, what a bloodbath. Unlike other leagues, a late surge and luck alone secured my spot in the playoffs. The first few weeks were doomed as it quickly became apparent that my poor drafting of Steve Smith, Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer was going to hurt me fast. Picking up Kyle Orton was blatant homerism - and a desperate move that paid off. Then, when he got hurt, I (apparently) tested the patience of the Fantasy Football Gods by grabbing Tyler Thigpen and letting the newbie play. Whatever. I made the playoffs. After a miraculous run in the previous playoffs - see post from the Chairman titled "The Worst Day of the Year" - I was content to let the season end, the Jimmy Dix mirroring the overperformance and luck of the 2008 Chicago White Sox season.

I might have a chance to win it all in my money league. I need Steve Smith to have a GAME.

What Fantasy Football Means to Me

The Fantasy Football Gods are fickle. Luck is very much a part of the game. For example, if you look at the playoff brackets in the UPL, you'll see something interesting. Of the 8 teams that made the playoffs, the 4 teams from the winner's bracket have (by a clear amount) the 4 lowest scores this week (ranging from 107.05 to 141.87). The 4 teams from the loser's bracket have scores ranging from 169.81 to 186.15. Of course, the Fantasy Football Gods are likely not in the mood to allow a repeat championship for a team that starts Tyler Thigpen and Davone Bess. Thank the Gods for that.

But more to the point of this post, fantasy football has this incredible ability to make the mundane into something spectacular.

For example, this week's Monday night matchup is a brick by most normal, sane views. Browns vs. Eagles, two teams that are rumbling about firing their coaches. These are teams that have gone through QB carousels (sort of) - the Browns due to poor play, and then two injuries, and the Eagles due to poor play and lack of knowledge regarding overtime rules.

But this game is a pivotal one in the UPL Football semifinals. Coming into Monday's game:

1 vs. 4 seed:
(4) I Giocatori - 108.43
(1) IAmJabrone - 128.08

The Jabrones are looking for their first UPL Football crown, as well as the 2nd leg of the Roland Slam. They are done for the week and have a 19.65 point edge on I Giocatori, who is the most successful UPL Football franchise, with 4 championships already. The only player left to go for I Giocatori? Brian Westbrook, star running back for the Eagles, who is "projected" by Yahoo! to have 27.41 points.

2 vs. 6 seed:
(6) O.N. Thugs - 141.87
(2) Superbowl Shuffling - 107.05

I'm looking for my 2nd UPL Football crown, after losing deep in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. I'm done for the week, and hold a 34.82 point lead. Superbowl Shuffling has one player remaining. Donovan McNabb, QB for the Eagles, who is "projected" to have 27.41 points.

There's a reasonable chance that we'll have 4 sets of eyes watching the TV with more interest than any sane person normally would.

Who am I rooting for? Kevin Kolb.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Kiss of Death

I was looking through some old UPL Blog archives. Okay, that's not entirely true. I was going back to put labels on old postings because I'm feeling a little OCD. But in any case, I came across this gem of a post.

Basically, look at what I wrote back in July:

"This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first...
Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy."

As I read through the list of names that I threw in there, all I can think is, "Yikes." Let's see. Brett, still standing in NY, but stats are definitely off, though is is currently #8 in QB points this season. But after that? Big Ben is 21st. And everyone else I listed has been hurt or benched. These were all guys who were Pro Bowl players, recently, I believe. It's like every person I named was cursed. Brady - played for less than a quarter. Carson - missed the last 4 games, and may be out for the season. Hasselbeck - injured all season. Bulger - benched/terrible this year. Derek Anderson - bad numbers and benched. Big Ben - bad numbers/hurt.

More to the point, the top 2 QB's this year so far are Kurt Warner and Drew Brees, and then there's a gap to #3 and #4 (Jay Cutler and Phillip Rivers), and then another gap to #5-7 (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, and Peyton Manning).

Of that group, Brees figured to be pretty good. And McNabb has been historically good. Rivers would've probably been a solid choice before the season. Warner would've been a big risk as your lead QB. Ditto for Cutler and Rodgers. Even if you had good feelings about them, you probably take them as your 2nd QB.

Before the season, if you take the QB's I listed (Big Ben, Favre, Palmer, Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Derek Anderson), and put them on a list with Cutler, Rivers, Warner, Brees, McNabb, and Aaron Rodgers, and then chose at random, you'd basically have 7 good seasons and 6 bricks. That's a lot of risk at a position where you need points. And if you look at the order in which the top 12 QB's were drafted in the UPL this year:

Brady - Peyton - Romo - Brees - Carson - Derek Anderson - Big Ben - Hasselbeck - McNabb - Garrard - Schaub - Bulger.

You see that only 3 of those 12 (Peyton, Brees, McNabb) have been good, Garrad has been reasonable, and Romo/Schaub have been good when healthy (and will be back). My original post wasn't meant to predict doom for all of those QB's. In fact, I wrote the post back in July, expecting that about most of the QB's that I listed would be studs, but that you weren't sure who they were going to be. But I ended up souding a little prophetic when talking about as close to a sure thing as you can get at the QB spot, in Peyton Manning, who I managed to draft.

Don't get me wrong. My team's got some issues this year, but I'm really glad to have a sure thing like Peyton as my QB (particularly since he was a 2nd rounder this year). In fact, I'm so glad to have him that I've been starting him over Kurt Warner, the highest point scorer in fantasy. Go figure. But what's killing me is this Joseph Addai character, whoever the hell he is, and the corpse of Marvin Harrison. But I have a suspicion that the Colts will get things in order, and make a run, just in time for the UPL playoffs...

Update, 11/18 - It appears that Gregg Easterbrook agrees: "As for the Colts, Peyton Manning is hot, Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison are back -- I'd look out for these guys."

Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

10 Days In: A Hypothetical Re-Draft

So, my last post was sort of an "Anatomy of an O.N. Thug Draft." And already, I'm second-guessing some of my picks.

Which leads to an interesting question. Just a bit into the new season, if we were going to re-draft, what players would go much earlier? I mean, obviously, D-Wade shouldn't fall to 9. But aside from that.

I think that Derrick Rose doesn't last past the 4th round if we re-draft, and I'd seriously consider taking him in 3rd, maybe even into the late 2nd. I think that I'd have him rated at 21 or 22 (right around Brandon Roy and Joe Johnson). I don't know if I'd take him over Brandon Roy with the 28th pick, but if he gets to me in the 4th at 39 overall, there's no way he goes past.

O.J. Mayo also gets boosted up, probably into the 5th/6th round, up from the 90th pick.
Rudy Fernandez goes off no later than the 7th round, much higher than the 152nd pick
Spencer Hawes gets drafted in the 9th/10th round, up from the 151st pick.
Travis Outlaw probably goes a couple rounds earlier, instead of in the 12th round.
Roger Mason and Marc Gasol gets drafted, rather than go FA.

What do you guys think? And who just went too high in the draft? Elton Brand comes to mind. Maybe Pau Gasol.

Anyway, this will be a fun post to revisit over the years - if the keeper draft were being held now (whenever that is), what would the order be?

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)