Endgame: Down to the Buzzer, The Final Chapter

Update @ April 15, 11:45pm:

Jabrones: Lost ground on BLK. They are out of contention, with a likely finish of 72 points.

Thugs: Only scored 1 STL, so they will not take the point from the Bricks. Thugs have shot 8 for 20, while Phatsnapper has shot 18 of 34, for 52.9%. Likely no move in FG% (Phatsnapper recently bumped up to .468). The Thugs have 2 AST to 3 TO, while Westy has 9 AST to 4 TO. Again, likely no move in A/TO. Likely finish is at 74.5.

Sparty: Shot a combined 23 for 64, or 35.9%, while the Bricks have shot well (22 of 43, or 51.2%) . It appears that the Bricks will hold steady in FG%, while Sparty may drop a half point to 74. Once again, my rhetorical question about whether Sparty's best move was to bench his players after he managed to pick up the half point.

We won't know the final outcome, since the rate stats are somewhat unpredictable w/ the info available. This makes me wish that they'd carry out the rate stats to a couple more decimal points, since the difference between 0.01 in, say A/TO, is a relatively large chunk, particularly since you rate 1.6251 as being the same as 1.6349, as both round to 1.63. It appears to be about 50-50 for for a tie at 74.5, and good chance for a miracle Thugs victory, 74.5 to 74.

Last day of the season, and things are still up in the air. But, what's interesting is that in the last week, the rabbit (the Euros, who were above 80 points, about a week ago) has been caught by the greyhounds. And now, it's less of a rabbit hunt, and more of a dog fight... I wonder where Michael Vick is right now...

Rk	Team	Tot	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	ORB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
1	O.N. Thugs	74.5	5.5	8	4	9	11	8	8	6	8	7
1	Sparty Rules	74.5	1.5	11	11	5	2	11	11	5	6	11
3	European Sellout	74	9	4	9	8	3	3	10	10	9	9
4	IamJabrone	72	10	3	3	11	9	10	5	11	7	3
5	chowtime	70.5	7.5	10	8	10	4	5	7	4	5	10
6	Westy's FadinBallers	69.5	7.5	7	5	7	6	9	9	9	4	6
7	Dribbling Balls	63	3	1	7	6	7	6	6	8	11	8
8	Floor burns	54	4	6	6	3	10	7	3	3	10	2
9	Milwaukee Bricks	43.5	1.5	2	10	4	5	2	4	7	3	5
10	Love Timberwolves	41	11	9	1	2	8	4	1	2	2	1
11	Phatsnapper	23.5	5.5	5	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	4

Yep. A 2-way tie for first.

Rk	Team	GP	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	ORB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
1	O.N. Thugs	820	0.468	0.799	591	13731	1452	4969	2853	810	577	1.63
1	Sparty Rules	816	0.463	0.827	972	12343	1038	5273	3203	802	542	1.98
3	European Sellout	820	0.473	0.772	858	13488	1114	4681	2995	913	589	1.70
4	IamJabrone	816	0.475	0.760	548	14137	1400	5135	2576	933	571	1.48
5	chowtime	816	0.471	0.817	803	13811	1126	4779	2719	759	538	1.78
6	Westy's FadinBallers	817	0.471	0.790	631	13065	1159	5093	2887	892	511	1.62
7	Dribbling Balls	798	0.464	0.751	787	12415	1176	4886	2707	872	626	1.68
8	Floor burns	820	0.465	0.789	754	11796	1412	4932	2254	757	603	1.44
9	Milwaukee Bricks	809	0.463	0.757	937	11839	1147	4521	2427	812	474	1.61
10	Love Timberwolves	699	0.478	0.801	384	11670	1304	4764	2095	681	432	1.39
11	Phatsnapper	646	0.468	0.785	533	10197	946	3880	2149	623	415	1.54

And looking at the stats, it appears to be a crapshoot.

There are potential 0.5 point swings in FG% for both the Thugs and Sparty. But that seems to be the extent of Sparty's movement. He'll probably finish at 74, 74.5, or 75, although if he manages to get like 12 steals out of his 4 players tonight, the league's over, in his favor, as that would win him one point from the Thugs. I'd guess that the most likely scenario is 74.5, with about a 24.5% chance of going up or going down that half point.

As for the Thugs, well, things are always a little different, and sort of special in that autistic/ semi-to-fully retarded sort of way.

The Thugs still have work to do. In addition to maintaining that 8 STL lead over Sparty, the Jabrones are 6 BLK back. Also, Westy's gunning for 0.5 point in A/T, from the Thugs. On the upside, the Thugs are only 2 STL back of the Bricks (aka Eddy's), and could still pick up a point there. If I had to guess, I think that the Thugs are more likely to take the point from the Bricks than to lose points to either Jabrones or Sparty. Also, I'd guess that picking up the 0.5 in FG% is about the same as losing the 0.5 in A/T, and I'd classify either as being unlikely (though not out of the question).

So, a reasonable, "good outcome" scenario is picking up 0.5 in FG%, and 1 in STL, and protecting the lead in BLK, and finishing with 76, and taking home the trophy. Of course the downside scenario is that multiple teams go nuts in just the wrong categories, and drop me to 73.5. But just like with Sparty, 74.5 is probably the most likely.

Does that mean that we're going to have another UPL tie? Well, I'd say that there's about a 40% chance of a tie (30% chance both teams stay, about 5% chance that both teams move up 0.5, and about a 5% chance that both teams move down 0.5). But if both teams move up, I like my chances, since that means that I took the point in STL from the Bricks.

And could there be a *Jabrone Slam (asterisk = having a 4-way tie as part of your "slam")? Not looking good, as the Jabrones would need to get at least 13 OREB and 7 BLK with 4 players, and also get help from the Bricks in FG% (ironic team name/stat category pairing) and STL. So in addition to having your bigs go nuts, you'd also be relying on the Bricks for quite a bit... probably not going to happen.

In any case, we've had quite the finish to the season. All we have left to do is the crowning of a champion.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Headlines

I swear, I'm still in 5th grade, but I still laugh hysterically whenever I see a headline like:

Rays rough up Wang

You see, that's funny because Wang is slang for wiener, which is slang for penis, which is slang for Wang. Plus, it's funny because Wang got roughed up, which is slang for masturbation, which is slang for spanking the monkey.

It's also funny because I'm a moron.

Heh... I can already see Westy rolling his eyes and C-Lauff laughing hysterically...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Endgame: Down to the Buzzer, Part III

Quick update, as the NBA regular season (and therefore UPL Basketball) winds down. The current standings:

Rank	Team	Tot	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
1	O.N. Thugs	76	6	8	4	10	11	7	8	7	8	7
2	European Sellout	74.5	9	4	9	8	3.5	3	10	10	9	9
3	Sparty Rules	74	1	11	11	5	2	11	11	5	6	11
4	IamJabrone	72	10	3	3	11	9	10	5	11	7	3
5	Westy's FadinBallers	70	8	7	5	7	6	9	9	9	4	6
6	chowtime	65.5	7	10	8	9	3.5	4	6	3	5	10
7	Dribbling Balls	64	3	1	7	6	7	6	7	8	11	8
8	Floor burns	57	4	6	6	4	10	8	3	4	10	2
9	Eddy's Crusty Towels	42	2	2	10	3	5	2	4	6	3	5
9	Love Timberwolves	42	11	9	1	2	8	5	1	2	2	1
11	Phatsnapper	23	5	5	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	4

Somewhat incredibly, the O.N. Thugs have made it back to the top of the mountain, heading into the last 4 days of the season. And the UPL regulars know that if the O.N. Thugs manage to hold off the pack, the trash talk will be immense.

Rank	Team	GP	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
1	O.N. Thugs	814	0.468	0.8	589	13659	1438	4924	2830	805	568	1.63
2	European Sellout	817	0.473	0.772	851	13434	1112	4672	2982	912	588	1.71
3	Sparty Rules	808	0.462	0.828	965	12212	1029	5225	3159	792	534	1.97
4	IamJabrone	807	0.474	0.76	541	13969	1381	5067	2546	925	565	1.47
5	Westy's FadinBallers	808	0.472	0.791	623	12932	1143	5034	2852	879	508	1.62
6	chowtime	803	0.471	0.818	794	13579	1112	4687	2679	741	521	1.78
7	Dribbling Balls	789	0.465	0.751	779	12309	1167	4846	2685	859	623	1.68
8	Floor burns	819	0.466	0.789	752	11788	1411	4927	2250	757	602	1.43
9	Eddy's Crusty Towels	798	0.463	0.756	924	11698	1131	4466	2400	804	463	1.61
9	Love Timberwolves	690	0.479	0.802	383	11533	1281	4699	2076	675	426	1.39
11	Phatsnapper	638	0.467	0.786	529	10065	933	3835	2126	616	409	1.54

So, what's the prognosis for the last few days? We'll assume that the rate stats hold firm, as the number of games available are quickly running out.

The O.N. Thugs will pick up 1 point in REB from Floor Burns, will likely lose 1 point in PTS to Chowtime, and have 2 more points that are up in the air (STL w/ Eddy's and BLK w/ Jabrones). So, the final scores for the Thugs will range from 74 to 76, with 75 being a pretty likely outcome.

The Euros will still lose another 0.5 point in OREB to chowtime, and look to be pretty stable at 74 points.

Sparty also appears to be locked in at 74 points.

The Jabrones may get the point in BLK from the Thugs, and have a chance to get one more point in OREB from Floor Burns. Which would put them at 74 points.

So what had appeared to be a 3 team race is now a 4-team race. And more interestingly, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the UPL will end up with a 4-way tie for first.

Of course, there's still a chance that the rate stats could move, with the most likely shift being Westy taking back 0.5 points in FG% from the Euros, though it looks pretty steady on that end. And once again, we're heading for a very dramatic finish. Anyone want to bet a dollar on the finish?

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Endgame: Down to the Buzzer, Part II

And down the stretch they come.

Here's the current standings:

Rk	Team	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T	Total
1	European Sellout	8	4	9	10	5.5	5	10	11	9	9	80.5
2	O.N. Thugs	6	8	4	9	11	7	8	6	8	7	74
2	Sparty Rules	1	11	11	5	2	11	11	5	6	11	74
4	IamJabrone	10	3	3	11	9	10	5	10	7	3	71
5	Westy's FadinBallers	9	7	5	7	5.5	9	9	9	4	5.5	70
6	Dribbling Balls	3.5	1	7	6	7	6	7	8	11	8	64.5
7	chowtime	7	10	8	8	3	3	6	3	5	10	63
8	Floor burns	3.5	6	6	4	10	8	3	4	10	2	56.5
9	Eddy's Crusty Towels	2	2	10	3	4	2	4	7	3	5.5	42.5
10	Love Timberwolves	11	9	1	2	8	4	1	2	2	1	41
11	Phatsnapper	5	5	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	4	23

And here are the current stats:

Rk	Team	GP	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
1	European Sellout	814	0.472	0.772	844	13377	1110	4664	2963	909	587	1.71
2	O.N. Thugs	798	0.468	0.799	573	13362	1420	4832	2758	786	560	1.62
2	Sparty Rules	789	0.462	0.827	940	11924	1003	5112	3095	777	522	1.97
4	IamJabrone	794	0.474	0.76	533	13716	1350	4970	2491	908	555	1.46
5	Westy's FadinBallers	791	0.473	0.791	600	12668	1110	4943	2784	869	503	1.61
6	Dribbling Balls	771	0.466	0.752	760	12090	1150	4755	2646	852	612	1.69
7	chowtime	788	0.471	0.819	776	13297	1093	4588	2632	733	511	1.77
8	Floor burns	817	0.466	0.789	750	11764	1402	4908	2243	755	601	1.43
9	Eddy's Crusty Towels	784	0.463	0.756	910	11479	1109	4393	2366	793	455	1.61
10	Love Timberwolves	679	0.48	0.803	378	11354	1257	4616	2040	663	421	1.39
11	Phatsnapper	631	0.467	0.788	523	9962	919	3781	2102	610	408	1.53

Things are starting to solidify, in terms of how the UPL Basketball season will finish up.

As predicted, it's looking like a 3 team race:

The Euro's are starting to fade a little bit. Currently, they're at 80.5 points. Using the same estimates as we did before, it looks like they're going to lose 6.5 points from the counting stats (2 in PTS, 1.5 in OREB, 2 in REB, 1 in ST) , and could go anywhere from -1 to +2 in FG%. A safe estimate is that they finish with 74.5 points, though my best guess is that 75 is more likely than 74.

Sparty looks awfully stable right now. Maybe 1 point in ST (O.N. Thugs) and Maybe 1 point in FG% (Eddy's). It's looking like maybe 75 points. Not much higher, but any lower than 74, from what I'm seeing.

So the biggest question mark is with the O.N. Thugs. I'll definitely get 1 point in PTS (Euro's), I'll also get 1 point in REB (Floor Burns). That puts me at 76. However, there's work left to do. I need to hold off Sparty in steals. If I do that, they that leaves Sparty at a max of 75, and likely only 74. At the same time, I've got an outside shot at getting 1 point in STL from Eddy's. Similarly, I've got a small chance of getting 1 point in AST from Westy and getting 1 point in BLK from Euro. If I manage to go nuts with steals and blocks down the stretch, then there's a good chance that I take home the gold. Of course, I need to hold off Chowtime in PTS, and both Westy and Eddy's in A/T.

So what does that all mean? I have no idea. My best guess is that I'm looking at 76 points. I think that I've got a fair shot at winning this, but there's definitely work left to be done.

All I know is that after spending most of the season in 9th place w/ C-Lauff, this is sort of fun.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Opening Moves and Historical Precedents

Baseball is underway. And so far, things are a mess, particularly for starting pitching. Like every year, you have a handful of players who were highly drafted get off to slow starts. If you take a look at the first page of starting pitchers (organized by Yahoo! rankings), you see that 13 of the top 25 pitchers have made starts. And the results are sort of ugly. They've gone a combined 4-7, Seven of the 13 pitchers have ERA's over 5 (three of them are over 10!), and five of the pitchers have WHIP's of 2 or more. Needless to say, some teams have ugly pitching stats right now (four teams have ERA's over 6, and three of them have WHIP's of 1.45 or more).

Sadly, this probably won't last (sad, because my team has gotten off to a reasonable start). Last year, team ERA's ranged from 3.38 to 4.46, and WHIP's ranged from 1.21 to 1.39. In 2007, ERA's ranged from 3.43 to 4.20. In fact, if you look at the history of the UPL, since the change to the roto format, ERA's have ranged from 3.23 to 4.72. And the range of WHIP's have been from 1.20 to 1.45.

I've talked before about how important it is to have clear idea of what it will take to win, in terms of total points. I've also talked about the usefulness of having projections for your team as you start a season. I think that this post is somewhat similar to both of the prior posts that I've made. Essentially, having a historical perspective of what the median and maximum of each stat category is pretty useful (the minimum isn't quite as useful since some teams will punt on a particular stat category). This gives you an idea of where your team will likely fall, and gives you a start point for evaluation of your team.

So what do historical numbers look like in the UPL? Take a look:

Historical Values
	Best	Avg Max	Avg Mid	% Move
R	1031	975	867	12.4%
HR	294	273	223	22.5%
RBI	1003	953	846	12.7%
SB	220	173	113	52.8%
OBP	0.391	0.377	0.355	6.0%
SLG	0.528	0.505	0.472	7.0%
W	108	96	80	20.8%
L	36	49	68	27.3%
SV	160	145	79	83.9%
K	1319	1235.5	999	23.7%
ERA	3.23	3.45	3.94	12.5%
WHIP	1.20	1.21	1.29	6.2%

What does this table mean? Well, the Best column is the all time best for any of these stats. The Avg Max column is the average maximum score, across all seasons. And the Avg Mid column is the average median score, across all seasons. Basically, if you want to finish in the top half of any category, you will probably need to get more than the Avg Mid value. Of course, there are some things to consider - the number of teams in the UPL hasn't always been the same (ranging from 11 to 14). And the UPL has seen some historically silly numbers (that may or may not have been performance enhanced).

This also helps you out when you look at the difference between the median and the maximum scores for each category. For example, if you look at WHIP, a shift in 0.08 takes you from the middle of the pack to the max. However, with ERA, you'll need to improve by about 0.50 to go from the middle to the top. This suggests that extra efforts in WHIP will probably give you more of a bump in the standings than ERA. Now, this is a bit of a crude analysis - to really get a picture of what improvements in a given category will do for you in the standings needs something a little finer. But you get the idea. The % Move category tells you a little more, specifically, how much of a change in each category (based on the median value) it will take to move to the top. Obviously, this isn't perfect, but it gives you a little better picture for how much of a shift in each category you need to really make a difference.

In any case, the big idea is that baseball is a marathon. Being in first place one day in doesn't really guarantee success. That is, unless it happens to be the O.N. Thugs who are in first place...

Rank		Team	Points	Pts Change	Waiver	Moves
1.		O.N. Thugs	101.5	4	5	8
2.		Cheeseheads	97.5	-8	8	5
3.		Muddy Mush Heads	88	-0.5	4	4
4.		Phatsnapper	87	-8.5	10	7
5.		Hats for Bats	84.5	-4	11	5
6.		'90 Reds	81	-1.5	2	4
7.		Black Sox	75	-2.5	6	2
8.		IamJabrone	74.5	9	9	7
9.		IStillSuckCurveballs	72	14.5	1	2
10.		Benver Droncos	66	-1.5	12	6
11.		TheJimmyDixLongballs	59	-14	3	3
12.		Westy's Sluggers	50	13	7	4

...which they are. So maybe all of this is moot.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)