UPL Basketball Preview (Part I)

Now that the draft has come and gone, it's time to take a look into the crystal ball, and see how each team looks. Now, the UPL has a bit of a history. If you take a look at how things have played out since the 2005 season, you can see the expected average, high, and low team totals for each stat category.

	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
PROJ AVG	0.467	0.774	738	12960	1233	4898	2789	835	564	1.65
PROJ MAX	0.481	0.810	955	15078	1461	5514	3427	977	678	1.97
PROJ MIN	0.456	0.738	511	10741	999.5	4044	2223	690	404	1.43

This gives you a nice way to get a quick idea of where teams' fantasy points project out to. It's a nice little reference point to have before we start looking at each team. And to further simplify this, if you normalize by 820, you get some idea of what sort of numbers per game, your players need to average.

	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
Per Player AVG	0.467	0.774	0.9	15.8	1.5	6.0	3.4	1.0	0.7	1.65
Per Player MAX	0.481	0.81	1.2	18.4	1.8	6.7	4.2	1.2	0.8	1.97
Per Player MIN	0.456	0.738	0.6	13.1	1.2	4.9	2.7	0.8	0.5	1.43

So, you need to average at least 16 PPG, 6 REB, 3.5 AST, and chip in 1 3PM, 1 STL and 1 BLK if you want to be competitive. And you should be looking at .467 from the field, .774 from the line, and 1.65 A/T. That should get you to about 60 points (11 team league), which would have put you in 8th place last year. Based on last year's finish, the league looks like it's going to have 4 teams who are in long-term building mode, and 7 teams that have legit shots to win it now.

So, with out further ado, we'll take a look at the teams that are probably going to be fighting for the top spot. Certainly, the base assumption is that teams stay healthy. Projected stats, and the corresponding fantasy performance is based on the likely distribution of playing time, that an active owner would assign. First, we will look at WakeUpWithTheKing and the O.N. Thugs, the two returning co-champs, as well as Sparty Rules, the team that fell out of first place in the last week of the season. Part II will focus on the other 4 likely contenders, and Part III will examine the 4 teams that are likely in rebuilding mode.

O.N. Thugs:
Last year's co-champs. Four consecutive champ/co-champs. UPL GOAT. Willing to mix it up with trades. Obsessed with Deron Williams since 2002.

2009-10 Outlook: 8 Keepers are all locked in as obvious starters, with question marks at SF and UTIL2. Balanced, deep team w/out a true fantasy pantheon player. Missed draft. Has already released 3 out of 6 auto-drafted players, and picked up young players as replacements. Lots of depth at PG, which may help in future trades.

Potential Injury Impact: Relatively low. Balanced team with lots of positional flexibility. The O.N. Thugs have historically been able to use team depth to make trades when injuries arise.

Positional Battles: Mike Miller/J.R. Smith/Danilo Gallinari at SF; those players, plus Louis Williams/Brandon Jennings at UTIL2.

Book a 5-Peat If: Boozer regains fitness and scoring touch. Russell Westbrook shoots above 43% from the floor.

Life Becomes Easier If: Either J.R. Smith or Danilo Gallinari put up reasonable peripheral stats to go with their 2-3 3PM per game. Mike Miller scores 12 PPG, and becomes an everyday starter. Brandon Jennings really is a 17, 9, and 6 guy.

Will Go Down in Flames If: Portland and Utah team planes crash into each other in real life.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, OREB, REB, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, FT%, STL, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 75 points. Range from 70 to 80. Would be surprising if they finished worse than 3rd place.


WakeUpWithTheKing:
Last year's co-champs. Relatively new to the UPL, but has established a top-half reputation. Has LeBron.

2009-10 Outlook: Has LeBron, which helps in so many ways. Lots of question marks due to injury. Has a couple category specialists, so some fine-tuning may be needed. May need help on the boards, especially if Shaq hurts scoring too much to play. Calderon will stabilize A/TO, but not enough depth in AST. Loss of Rashard Lewis for 10 games may keep this team from really being a top 3PM team. May be able to trade BLK to make up other stats. Did I mention he has LeBron?

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate to high. LeBron aside, losing anyone on the roster wouldn't be catastrophic. However, Shaq, Ginobli, Chandler, Bynum, and Gerald Wallace all have injury histories.

Positional Battles: Lots of combinations are in play. LeBron, Calderon, Gerald Wallace, Rashard Lewis, and Andrew Bynum will always play. Probably same goes for Ginobli, O.J. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas (though they're less certain). Chandler and Shaq appear to be similar fantasy players at this point.

Book a Repeat If: Injury bug stays away. Bynum makes The Leap. We look back and decide that Shaq was deserving of being a keeper. Tyrus Thomas gets PT and becomes a 14+ PPG guy.

Life Becomes Easier If: Shaq and Chandler aren't done. Rashard Lewis comes back with vengeance. Tyreke Evans and Terrence Willams step up.

Will Go Down in Flames If: LeBron gets hurt. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas get squeezed in playing time/shots. Don't get help from Tyreke Evans and Terrence Williams.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 68 points. Range from 62 to 74 points. Top-half team, but doesn't have the look of a top-3 finish.

Sparty Rules:
3rd place last year. Fell from 1st place in the last week. Traditionally a top-half UPL team. Has CP3, and took him over LeBron.

2009-10 Outlook: Has CP3, which automatically makes you competitive in AST and A/TO. Scoring will probably be a concern, as will FG%, given the relatively lower quality big men. A few questions marks about how players will fit in new roles or new surroundings (Artest, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Stuckey). Camby is coming off injury, and if injury prone.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, CP3 going down would be catastrophic. Virtually all of the likely big man starters (Camby, Artest, Marvin Williams, and Troy Murphy) have injury track records.

Positional Battles: Suckey and Hinrich are jockeying to be 3rd guard, though neither is desirable at UTIL. Could shift Turkoglu to guard, if Artest is a worthwhile starter. Birdman/Dalembert could take PT from Diaw/Marvin Williams if BLK are needed.

A UPL Title is in the Works If: Stuckey and Jeff Green make The Leap. Turkoglu replicates numbers in Canada, without hurting Bargnani development.

Life Becomes Easier If: Diaw establishes himself as a legit fantasy player. Artest's numbers stay reasonable.

Will Go Down in Flames If: CP3 gets hurt. Turkoglu and Bargnani cannabalize each other's numbers.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FT%, 3PM, REB, AST, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, PTS
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 70 points. CP3's UPL supporting cast looks better than LeBron's. Top half finish for sure. Likely top 4.

UPL Basketball 2009 Draft Recap

This year, I decided to employ a new strategy. In one of the comments of my last post, I made this bold declaration:

"I am also considering doing something different than my usual plan of going out until 4am the night before the draft, rolling out of bed right when the draft is starting, and then picking guys whose names I can pronounce."

And sure enough, I kept my promise. This year, I stayed out too late, and just slept through the draft entirely. The best part was that right around 10:30, OD gives me a call to remind me about the draft. I groan, pick up the phone, see that it's OD, and decide, "Ugh. I'll just give him a call back later." Then a little later, I wake up at 11:25, and realize that the draft was long over. I'm awesome.

So, this draft recap will be a little different, since it will be more of a historical analysis, than an ethnography. But it should still be interesting. And it's interesting - my philosophy in fantasy sports, particularly keeper leagues, is that you get the guy that you want, unless there's absolute, clear value. This is me taking Deron Williams over D-Wade, because D-Will is my guy, and there's the greater threat of catastrophic injury for D-Wade. I mean, that's probably still a homer pick. But that's my mode of thinking, which makes me surprised at some of the picks that happened in this draft.

Round 9
1	Anthony Randolph	IamJabrone
2	Rasheed Wallace	Floor burns
3	Michael Redd	Phatsnapper
4	Charlie Villanueva	Love Timberw...
5	Ben Gordon	Milwaukee Br...
6	Emeka Okafor	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Blake Griffin	chowtime
8	Mike Bibby	Westy's Ball...
9	Jeff Green	Sparty Rules
10	Tyrus Thomas	Wakeup with ...
11	Spencer Hawes	O.N. Thugs

Right off the bat, we see some interesting choices. First of all, the Jabrones go with hype, hope for the playing time, and take Anthony Randolph, who's supposed to be coming into his own this year. I'd have played it safer and either gone with Redd or Gordon, or just go with Blake Griffin right there (note we'll ignore the broken kneecap, since that hadn't happened, yet). You can't really fault this pick, since they weren't going to pick again for a while. You get the guy you want.

The next pick is just flat out mystifying. Rasheed is a 35 year old big, who will give you some OK stats, but will probably be option 3a or 3b in Boston this year. He probably only racks up about 28 minutes per game, and probably won't score 12 ppg. His rebounding numbers will go down, and his FG% will be bad since he hangs out on the perimeter and jacks 3's. But other than that, he's great. Given FloorBurns' relatively weak back-end keepers, the pick here should have been Redd or a younger player that is likely to emerge as a keeper. Certainly not Rasheed.

At this point, there are a series of teams that finished low, and need long-term help. I'm OK with Redd going #3 and Gordon going #5. I'm just confused by Charlie Villaneuva at #4. He's still young, but last season, playing for a bad Bucks team, he played 27 minutes per game. Career, he has played 26.5 minutes per game. He'll be in a rotation with a bunch of players in Detroit, and looks to be the 4th or 5th best offensive option on that team (after Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and maybe Rodney Stuckey). His hustle stats are OK. His shooting is subpar for a big. The odds of him being a keeper next year are about 40-60, against. This pick should have been a much better upside pick (Blake Griffin, Tyrus Thomas, Emeka Okafor, etc.) I'm not really a fan.

Then comes OD, with the 6th pick. And he rolls w/ his UConn guy, Okafor. If he's healthy, Okafor's looking like a 14 and 10 guy, with maybe 1.5 to 2 blocks. The problem is, he's always banged up, and he's actually regressed a bit from his best season in 06-07. If you were evaluating this pick in a bubble, you can definitely make a good case for it. But the problem is that Chowtime picks 7th. As I noted before, his team was ranked really high up top, but his last 2 keepers were marginal, at best. And he ends up with Blake Griffin. This is a very scary outcome, actually, and this would probably have not happened had I been awake, as I probably would have berated OD until he picked Griffin. Now Westy misses out on his chance to upgrade his 8th keeper from Luis Scola to Blake Griffin, who goes to Chowtime.

Westy wants to go little, and decides to try to win this year by picking up Mike Bibby, who is probably a marginal keeper next year, and passes on younger players like Jonny Flynn, Steph Curry, or Tyreke Evans (who may last another two rounds). Can't really fault the Mike Bibby selection, though I'm not particularly fond of him in that dysfunctional ATL offense... and I can't really believe that Bibby is who Westy really wants on his roster, long-term.

The next pick is the 2nd boner by OD of the draft. Somehow, he decided to keep Rudy Fernandez, and let Jeff Green go. Huge mistake. Rudy would have probably been available in the 12th or 13th round. Green is an easy choice for the 9th, and normally would have fit in better for Westy, but Westy was looking for a guard, and not the best value available. Sparty is more than happy to pick him up, since scoring appears to be an issue for him, and Green will help there. The next pick is a killer for me. The guy I was hoping would fall to me, Tyrus Thomas, gets snatched up by Stephan. Not sure about his PT in the Bulls rotation, w/ Deng coming back, but he played great down the stretch last year. He can single-handedly keep you in contention in both STL and BLK.

Which actually leaves me in a bad situation, even if I had been present. Going into the draft, had I been picking first, I would have probably picked Redd since he qualified at SF, and helps me out w/ the 3PM. My next best option would have been Blake Griffin. There was virtually no chance that they fall to me at 11. I was hoping that Tyrus Thomas and J.R. Smith would be available. I did end up getting J.R. Smith w/ my 2nd pick (the first of the 10th round), but I also got stuck w/ the auto-draft special, Spencer Hawes. I think that the computer decided that the O.N. Thugs needed the best white player available.

Now, had I been there, I would have settled on J.R. Smith, and one of the following: Tyson Chandler, Trevor Ariza, Michael Beasley, Tyreke Evans, or Allen Iverson. Possibly Yao. Given my lack of quality at SF, there's a good chance that it would have been Ariza or Beasley. But I may have also just gone w/ Chandler again, figuring that he wouldn't screw me 2 years in a row. But instead, I end up with Spencer Hawes. I'm trying to talk myself into this guy. He was 11 and 7 last year, in about 29 minutes per game. He blocks over a shot a game. Did I mention that he was white? We'll see how long this guys lasts on the O.N. Thugs.

Round 10
1	J.R. Smith	O.N. Thugs
2	Tyson Chandler	Wakeup with ...
3	Ron Artest	Sparty Rules
4	Mike Conley	Westy's Ball...
5	Brad Miller	chowtime
6	Tayshaun Prince	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Trevor Ariza	Milwaukee Br...
8	Jason Thompson	Love Timberw...
9	Luol Deng	Phatsnapper
10	Joakim Noah	Floor burns
11	Jermaine O'Neal	IamJabrone

The 10th round opens up with my auto-draft bouncing back and getting me J.R. Smith. Stephan takes another guys I had highly rated, in Tyson Chandler. Sparty picks up former and eternal Thug, Ron Artest, who's an interesting pick, since his level of variance is so high in that Laker offense. If you told me that he'll score 7 points per game this year, I'd believe you. And if you told me that he'll score 15 points per game, I'd believe you. I have no clue what he'll be doing this year in LA.

Now, the 4th pick of the round is surprising to me. Westy goes Mike Conley. He was 10 and 4 last year, in 30 minutes per game. He'll chip in a 3PM and a STL per game, but not much else. This year he has AI in the mix, as well as a bunch of gunners (Mayo, Gay, and Zach Randolph). I am shocked that Westy goes with Conley here, over Jonny Flynn (his Minnesota guy) or Tyreke Evans (who's my guess at ROY this year, now that Blake went down), especially since his next pick isn't for another 15 picks. Particularly in a keeper draft, I believe in the idea of getting the guy you want, and again, I have a hard time believing that Conley is the guy that Westy really wanted.

The rest of the round is sort of uneventful. Phatsnapper and OD may be getting value with Luol Deng and Tayshaun. The Jabrones must believe that they're set with AST, and go big w/ Jermaine O'Neal, who may or may not be totally washed up.

Round 11
1	Richard Hamilton	IamJabrone
2	Chris Duhon	Floor burns
3	Francisco Garcia	Phatsnapper
4	Michael Beasley	Love Timberw...
5	Jamal Crawford	Milwaukee Br...
6	Ryan Gomes	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Jonny Flynn	chowtime
8	Allen Iverson	Westy's Ball...
9	Rodney Stuckey	Sparty Rules
10	Tyreke Evans	Wakeup with ...
11	Mike Miller	O.N. Thugs

The 11th round starts off with the Jabrones picking up Rip Hamilton, who has been shooting more 3's the last couple years, but still isn't a real 3PM guy. I'd say that he's a borderline starter for a top flight fantasy team, but completely doesn't fit into my style of roster building (I don't like guys that only score unless they drain 3's, which is why I was actually considering not keeping Monta Ellis). I'm not fond of either the Duhon or the Garcia pick, since they don't seem to have keeper potential. Love the Beasley pick by Robby. Jamal Crawford drives me nuts, and looks to be the 6th man in ATL... I'd probably pass. Then comes the interesting pick. Jonny Flynn (who Westy is high on), goes to Chowtime. Westy gest AI, instead. I'm willing to bet that at this point, Westy regrets the Conley pick. After that, Stuckey goes to Sparty. And for the 2nd time in 2 tries, I lose my guy to Stephan. Had I been at the draft, I probably would have been angry at this point. But I end up with Mike Miller.

I'm actually OK with Mike Miller at the end of the 11th round, since it appears that he'll be starting in Washington, and when Arenas is on the bench, there's a good chance that the offense gets facilitated through Miller. I'm guessing that his scoring stays in the low teens, but he'll keep making 3PM, and will put up okay AST and REB numbers.

Round 12
1	Peja Stojakovic	O.N. Thugs
2	Al Thornton	Wakeup with ...
3	Chris Andersen	Sparty Rules
4	Marc Gasol	Westy's Ball...
5	Stephen Curry	chowtime
6	Raymond Felton	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Mario Chalmers	Milwaukee Br...
8	Ronnie Brewer	Love Timberw...
9	Courtney Lee	Phatsnapper
10	Nate Robinson	Floor burns
11	Ramon Sessions	IamJabrone

Now, what I'm not thrilled about is getting Peja in the 12th. Unless he's healthy. If he's healthy, then he's 16 points, and 3 3PM a game. But my preference would have been Steph Curry. But instead, the auto-draft has decided that since we picked just about the blackest dude possible in J.R. Smith, I needed more whiteness on my team so much that we went with the 2 best white players available. Good times.

The good news is that Stephan finally has a pick that I'm not envious of. Chowtime adds another potential keeper. I still have a suspicion that Raymond Felton will finally emerge at a legit player, so I actually like this pick. Ronnie Brewer is an interesting player. His shooting has nowhere to go but up. Teams were leaving him wide open from 18 feet, which is unheard of in the NBA. He's really good at getting STL, but has been a total liability on offense. Mario Chalmers is a nice little pick up for the Bricks, since he'll help you be competitive in 3PM and STL, and has a good A/TO, though he doesn't handle the ball enough to really accumulate points or AST. I'm curious to see how Nate Robinson progresses for the Knicks. Any point guard in a Mike D'Antoni system has the chance to put up big numbers, but he's such a gunner that even with some stat inflation, he's only putting up 4 AST per game.

Round 13
1	Tracy McGrady	IamJabrone
2	Randy Foye	Floor burns
3	Corey Maggette	Phatsnapper
4	Larry Hughes	Love Timberw...
5	Aaron Brooks	Milwaukee Br...
6	D.J. Augustin	SuckMyDribbl...
7	DeJuan Blair	chowtime
8	Mike Dunleavy	Westy's Ball...
9	Samuel Dalembert	Sparty Rules
10	Matt Barnes	Wakeup with ...
11	Shane Battier	O.N. Thugs

Tracy McGrady is a nice lottery ticket here in the 13th round by the Jabrones, especially when he comes back w/out Yao clogging up the lane for him. Maggette may be a nice value pick if he's healthy. I like Chowtime's pick again, as he'll have an option for rebounding, if he needs it. And Blair did show some nice touch in the low block. Nothing too exciting the rest of the round. I'm a little surprised that Westy didn't take Battier (who he defended quite a bit last year, when I suggested that Battier shouldn't have been on his roster). The main reason that I'm surprised is that I would have assumed that I was fated to draft Mike Dunleavy, as the auto-draft continued on it's "best white player available" strategy for me. I'm not exactly thrilled w/ Battier, but in the 13th, it could be worse. Plus, w/ T-Mac and Yao out for the time being, a few more points may fall his way. I'm much more excited about who the auto-draft sent my way in the last round.

Round 14
1	Louis Williams	O.N. Thugs
2	Brendan Haywood	Wakeup with ...
3	Kirk Hinrich	Sparty Rules
4	Darko Milicic	Westy's Ball...
5	Yao Ming	chowtime
6	Grant Hill	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Brandon Rush	Milwaukee Br...
8	Yi Jianlian	Love Timberw...
9	Zydrunas Ilgauskas	Phatsnapper
10	James Harden	Floor burns
11	Anthony Morrow	IamJabrone

I like Louis Williams, since he's got a lot of upside at one of those gunners on a bad team. He'll finally be starting in Philly, w/ Andre Miller out. And best of all, at least I didn't end up with Brendan Haywood, like Stephan did... or Darko, like Westy did... Chowtime gets the chance to add another keeper to his roster, if his team stays healthy enough so that he can carry Yao all year. I'm a bit surprised that the Bricks go with Brandon Rush, rather than getting their ASU guys, James Harden. The nickname stealer Yi has actually been putting up good numbers, so Robby may be getting a nice value here. And the last pick of the draft goes to the Jabrones: Anthony Morrow. Who the hell's Anthony Morrow? No, seriously. It took a while, but we finally got to a player that I had no idea what team they played for, where they went to college, what position they played. I realize that it's the Mr. Irrelevant pick, but still... who the hell's Anthony Morrow?

Okay. Now, I'm not going to get into the pre-season evaluations, yet, since this draft recap ran long. That post will come later this week, I think.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Basketball Keepers and Preliminary Analysis

The UPL Basketball draft is only days away. And keeper lists have been submitted for the first time in UPL history. Here's the damage. I've listed the keepers for each team, along with the Yahoo! pre-rank.

IamJabrone		Floor burns		Phatsnapper
3	Dwyane Wade	30	Kevin Martin	9	Amar'e Stoudemire
25	Joe Johnson	33	Shawn Marion	17	Steve Nash
31	Gilbert Arenas	50	Stephen Jackson	19	Antawn Jamison
34	Carmelo Anthony	63	Mo Williams	42	Ray Allen
38	Josh Smith	67	Leandro Barbosa	90	Wilson Chandler
48	David Lee	73	Paul Millsap	95	Andrew Bogut
51	Derrick Rose	78	Lamar Odom	99	T.J. Ford
60	Al Horford	93	Richard Jefferson	137	Kenyon Martin
Love Timberwolves		Milwaukee Bricks		SuckMyDribblingBalls
7	Kevin Durant	37	Elton Brand	6	Kobe Bryant
10	Chris Bosh	39	Jason Richardson	18	Tim Duncan
55	Rajon Rondo	41	Baron Davis	20	Dwight Howard
54	Rudy Gay	46	Andris Biedrins	23	Jason Kidd
66	Andre Miller	49	Mehmet Okur	71	John Salmons
77	Zach Randolph	69	Al Harrington	98	Andrei Kirilenko
84	Josh Howard	74	Eric Gordon	128	Greg Oden
87	Kevin Love	81	Jason Terry	153	Rudy Fernandez
chowtime		Westy's Balltastics		Sparty Rules
5	Dirk Nowitzki	12	Kevin Garnett	1	Chris Paul
6	Danny Granger	13	Al Jefferson	15	Chauncey Billups
8	Pau Gasol	16	Caron Butler	35	Troy Murphy
27	Vince Carter	22	Andre Iguodala	47	Marcus Camby
53	Jameer Nelson	24	Devin Harris	57	Hedo Turkoglu
65	Tony Parker	28	Paul Pierce	59	Andrea Bargnani
88	Chris Kaman	58	Nene Hilario	89	Boris Diaw
102	Thaddeus Young	92	Luis Scola	94	Marvin Williams
Wakeup with the King		O.N. Thugs
2	LeBron James	11	Brandon Roy
21	Jose Calderon	14	Deron Williams
26	Gerald Wallace	29	Brook Lopez
36	Rashard Lewis	32	David West
43	Manu Ginobili	40	LaMarcus Aldridge
56	O.J. Mayo	44	Carlos Boozer
68	Andrew Bynum	45	Monta Ellis
108	Shaquille O'Neal	70	Russell Westbrook

And just for a crude analysis, here are some averages for each team:

TEAM	AVG	TOP7	TOP6	TOP5	TOP4
IamJabrone	36.3	32.9	29.8	26.2	23.3
Floor burns	60.9	56.3	52.7	48.6	44.0
Phatsnapper	63.5	53.0	45.3	35.4	21.8
Love Timberwolves	55.0	50.4	44.8	38.4	31.5
Milwaukee Bricks	54.5	50.7	46.8	42.4	40.8
SuckMyDribblingBalls	64.6	52.0	39.3	27.6	16.8
chowtime	44.3	36.0	27.3	19.8	11.5
Westy's Balltastics	33.1	24.7	19.2	17.4	15.8
Sparty Rules	49.6	43.3	35.7	31.0	24.5
Wakeup with the King	45.0	36.0	30.7	25.6	21.3
O.N. Thugs	35.6	30.7	28.3	25.2	21.5
EXPECTED	44.5		33.5		22.5

Here, I've listed each team's average pre-rank, based on the Yahoo! rankings of their 8 keepers, their top 7, their top 6, etc. Across the bottom, I've also listed the expected values.

It's not surprising that teams that finished towards the bottom last year would have keepers with lower pre-ranks (and higher values in this table), and that teams that finished toward the top would have higher pre-ranks. Of course, this gets a little out of whack, when owners take chances on players ranked in the 100's (like OD, who actually has two Trail Blazers on his keeper list, Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden, who are ranked128 and 153, respectively)

Immediately some things should jump out at you. First of all, there are 3 teams with quality across their top 8: Westy, IAmJabrone, and the O.N. Thugs, each of whom have average pre-ranks in the 30's for their 8 keepers. Even more interesting is that Westy has the best average across this top 8 (heck, Paul Pierce was his 6th ranked player, and he was 28th overall), but finished tied for 5th place last year. This may explain Westy's comments about how he is still shocked that he didn't win last year. Also, in retrospect, the commish failed in his duties when he neglected to squash the Caron Butler for Tayshaun Prince trade.

If you believe in getting superstars, and then filling in the holes, then Chowtime should be a scary team this year. They have three out of the top 8 ranked players (Dirk, Granger, and Gasol). On the flip side, Floor Burns and Milwaukee Bricks would be in trouble with that criteria (and many other criteria), since their top players are ranked in the 30's. Interestingly, there are two other teams who lack players in the top 10. Shockingly, they are Westy and the O.N. Thugs. In both cases, they have multiple players in the top 20, and ton of players ranked in the top 50, but none of the top 10. I suppose that this just indicates that there are a many different ways to fill out a fantasy roster.

And yet another way to look at the quality of the teams is by the players that they didn't keep. The remaining top-100 players are:

Michael Redd (52) - IAmJabrone
Charlie Villanueva (61) - IAmJabrone
Ben Gordon (62) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Bibby (64) - Chowtime
Anthony Randolph (72) - IAmJabrone
Jeff Green (75) - SuckMyDribblingBalls
Rasheed Wallace (76) - Sparty Rules
Blake Griffin (79) - n/a
Spencer Hawes (80) - Phatsnapper
Emeka Okafor (82) - Milwaukee Bricks
J.R. Smith (83) - Milwaukee Bricks
Tyrus Thomas (85) - O.N. Thugs
Ron Artest (86) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Conley (91) - Love Timberwolves
Brad Miller (96) - Sparty Rules
Trevor Ariza (97) - n/a
Jason Thompson (100) - IAmJabrone

Interestingly, we see that the Milwaukee Bricks actually let go of two players in the 80's. But this isn't a questionable move, because they were actually their 9th and 10th rated players. Also, IAmJabrone and O.N. Thugs both had difficult choices in keeping lower-rated players (#60 Al Horford over #52 Michael Redd; #70 Russell Westbrook over #62 Ben Gordon). But perhaps the most interesting non-keeper is #64 Michael Bibby, who Chowtime dropped in lieu of not only #65 Tony Parker, but also #88 Chris Kaman, as well as #102 Thaddeus Young. Of course, this may also offer insight into why Westy didn't win last year, since none of the other players on his roster made this list. Really, his roster stopped at 7 players (#92 Luis Scola was his 8th keeper), and it appears that enough ground was made up by the O.N. Thugs and the European Sellouts (aka WakeUpWithTheKing) with the 3 remaining starting positions to overtake him.

All in all, this is a superficial look at the inaugural UPL keepers. And this superficial look suggests that we'll have a three team race for the top this year between IAmJabrone, Westy, and the O.N. Thugs. IAmJabrone probably has the inside track, given his luck in the UPL Lottery. To round off his team, the Jabrones will have 3 of the first 23 picks to fill in the rest of his starting 10. On the other hand Westy's 3rd pick will be 28th, and the Thugs' 3rd pick will be 33rd. But, as we all know, there's the actual season to be played, and many moves in free agency to be made. You can also make the case for top-heavy teams (Chowtime and SuckMyDribblingBalls) who will have a lot more certainty in their superstars' stats, and will know better how to build their supporting cast. Sparty is a regular on the UPL podium, though still w/out a UPL championship ring. And we haven't even mentioned the defending co-champ WakeUpWithTheKing!

In any case, if last year is any indicator, UPL Basketball will be a shootout. There were 7 very competitive teams last year, 6 of whom finished within 4 points of the title. Naturally, I'm hoping for a less exciting result, as I'm still predicting an O.N. Thugs sort of season. But that's the most predictable part of any preseason writeup I make, isn't it?

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2009 UPL Baseball Post-Season Awards

It's the end of another UPL Baseball season, so with further ado:

All-UPL First Team:

C: Joe Mauer, Phatsnapper
1B: Albert Pujols, IAmJabrone
2B: Chase Utley, Westy's Sluggers
3B: Mark Reynolds, IAmJabrone
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Black Sox
OF: Ryan Braun, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Carl Crawford, Cheeseheads
OF: Matt Kemp, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Ryan Howard, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Mark Teixeira, Phtasnapper
SP: Zack Greinke, Phatsnapper
SP: Tim Lincecum, O.N. Thugs
SP: Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
SP: Chris Carpenter, O.N. Thugs
SP: Roy Halladay, Hats for Bats
RP: Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKnuckleballs
RP: Joe Nathan, '90 Reds
RP: Heath Bell, Hats for Bats

All-UPL Second Team

C: tie, Victor Martinez, '90 Reds Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
1B: Prince Fielder, Black Sox
2B: Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone
3B: tie, Miguel Cabrera, Cheeseheads and Evan Longoria, JimmyDixLongballs
SS: tie, Derek Jeter, O.N. Thugs and Troy Tulowitzki, Cheeseheads
OF: Matt Holliday, Westy's Sluggers
OF: Jason Bay, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Adam Lind, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Ryan Zimmerman, Black Sox
UTIL: Derek Lee, JimmyDixLongballs
SP: Javy Vazquez, '90 Reds
SP: Dan Haren, '90 Reds
SP: Adam Wainwright, Phatsnapper
SP: Matt Cain, Cheeseheads
SP: Justin Verlander, BlackSox
RP: Ryan Franklin, SuckMyKunckleballs
RP: Jonathan Broxton, IAmJabrone
RP: Jonathan Papelbon, Black Sox

All-UPL Team Killers

C: tie, Russell Martin, O.N. Thugs and Geovony Soto, Cheeseheads
1B: Chris Davis, IAmJabrone
2B: Alexei Ramirez, JimmyDixLongballs
3B: Garrett Atkins, free agent - drafted by Hats for Bats
SS: Jose Reyes, Hats for Bats
OF: Grady Sizemore, Muddy Mush Heads
OF: Josh Hamilton, Phatsnapper
OF: Alfonso Soriano, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Carlos Beltran, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Carlos Quentin, Black Sox (corrected, 10/15)
SP: Brandon Webb, Westy's Sluggers
SP: Cole Hamels, IAmJabrone
SP: Jake Peavy, O.N. Thugs
SP: Ervin Santana, Westy's Sluggers
SP: Francisco Liriano, IAmJabrone
RP: Brad Lidge, JimmyDixLongballs
RP: Kerry Wood, Benver Droncos
RP: Matt Capps, IAmJabrone

Team of the Year: '90 Reds
Manager of the year: Westy
UPL MVP - Ryan Howard, '90 Reds
UPL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
UPL Fireman Award - Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKunckleballs
UPL Rookie Pitcher - Andrew Bailey, O.N. Thugs (apologies to J.A. Happ and Tommy Hanson)
UPL Rookie Hitter - Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
UPL Out of Nowhere Pitcher - Randy Wolf, Cheeseheads
UPL Out of Nowhere Hitter - tie, Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone, Ben Zobrist, Hats for Bats and Kendry Morales, JimmyDixLongballs

As usual, comment away.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2009 UPL Basketball Draft Lottery (part II)

And, we are back from commercial. The Commish is ready to announce the top 5 picks in the 2009 UPL Basketball Draft.

5th - Milwaukee Bricks

This is the 2nd big announcement of the day. This means that a 2nd team, Floor Burns has defied odds, and has entered the top 3 in the lottery. And perhaps just as importantly, this also means that of the two lowest finishers, Phatsnapper and Love T'Wolves, only one of them will be selecting in the top 3.

4th - Love T'Wolves

The 10th place Love T'Wolves get a bit unlucky and fall to the 4th pick.

3rd - Phatsnapper

The last place Phatsnappers fall two slots, and end up with the 3rd pick in the 2009 UPL Basketball draft. This leaves the two teams who defied the lottery odds: the 4th place IAmJabrone, who had approximately a 11.8% chance of selecting in the top 2, and Floor Burns, who were about twice as likely to select in the top 2, at 22.8%.

...with out further ado.

2nd - Floor Burns

This means that the first pick in the 2009 UPL Baskeball draft belongs to:

1st - IAmJabrone

Amazing. Despite having only a 6.06% chance, IAmJabrone's string of good fortune continues, as they land the top pick in the draft.

SOME LOTTERY INFO

The password for the .pdf file that I sent to everyone is:

hullabaloo

That should unlock the file so any external audits can be done. The specific numbers used in the lottery are as follows:

Order	Westy	C-Lauff	OD	Jeff	Lotto Ticket	Team
1	7	1	5	3	7153	IAmJabrone
omit	1	6	9	2	1692	IAmJabrone
2	1	1	5	3	1153	Floor Burns
3	2	5	0	4	2504	Phatsnapper
	7	2	5	4	7254	Sparty

Interestingly, after IAmJabrone received the 2nd pick, they actually won the lottery again, and had the 2nd number selected, which is a 0.367% event. Apparently the UPL Gods were smiling on the Jabrones quite a bit. And just for giggles, the 4th lottery slot would have gone to Sparty had we done more lottery-assigned slots. Also, with regard to the 30 numbers generated by Westy, C-Lauff, OD, and Jeff, none of them were assigned to either of last year's co-champions, the O.N. Thugs and European Sellouts. So, despite Greg's hope, there was no controversy to be had with an O.N. Thugs #1 draft pick.

In any case, it's time to start figuring out who everyone's keeping. The draft is on Saturday, Oct. 24 at 10:30am, and keepers are due one week before the draft, preferably earlier.

Best of luck in the upcoming season.

IAmJabrone is now on the clock.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2009 UPL Basketball Draft Lottery (part I)

The first annual UPL Basketball Draft Lottery has been conducted. As a reminder, lottery selections have been made for the first 3 picks of the 2009-10 UPL Basketball Draft, with the remaining draft slots made in reverse order of finish from last year. The order of finish, and the corresponding odds of selecting 1st in the draft are as follows:

	Rank	Odds
Phatsnapper	11	16.67%
Love T'Wolves	10	15.15%
Milwaukee Bricks	9	13.64%
Floor Burns	8	12.12%
Dribbling Balls	7	10.61%
Chowtime	6	9.09%
Westy's Ballers	5	7.58%
IAmJabrone	4	6.06%
Sparty Rules	3	4.55%
O.N. Thugs	1.5	2.27%
European Sellout	1.5	2.27%
TOTAL	66	100.00%

Part I of the draft lottery results are as follows.

11th - O.N. Thugs


The O.N. Thugs are selecting 11th, due to UPL tiebreaker rules, based on their higher finish the previous season.

10th - European Sellout

The European Sellouts are selecting 10th, after their almost miraculous final day recovery to tie for the UPL championship.

9th - Sparty Rules

So far, things are moving according to plan.

8th - Westy's Ballers

Wow. This is huge news, folks. This means that IAmJabrone has defied the lottery odds, and has won one of the top three selections in the 2009 UPL Basketball Draft.

7th - Chowtime

After a little craziness at the top of the draft, the lottery is back on track.

6th - Dribbling Balls

With the first half of the lottery completed, the only aberration is IAmJabrone beating the odds to land one of the top 3 picks.

We're going to take a short commercial break, and we'll come back to announce the rest of the 2009 UPL Basketball Draft Lottery results.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)