Down the Stretch...

So, it's not exactly looking great on the scoreboard for the O.N. Thugs right now:

Rank		Team	Points	Pts Change	Waiver	Moves
1.		IamJabrone	115.5	0	8	68
2.		O.N. Thugs	110.5	0.5	12	82
3.		IStillSuckCurveballs	107	0	9	20
4.		TheJimmyDixLongballs	92.5	-3.5	7	38
5.		Milwaukee Whiffers	89	0	4	22
6.		'90 Reds	88	3	2	54
7.		Black Sox	64	0	6	28
8.		Phatsnapper	62	1.5	1	9
9.		Westy's Slugs	57	-1	11	78
10.		Muddy Mud Skippers	55.5	-0.5	3	12
10.		Cheeseheads	55.5	-0.5	5	25
12.		Benver Droncos	39.5	0.5	10	45

Here's the breakdown. With two days left in the season, I have to close out 5 points on the Jabrones. However, the 5 points aren't the toughest 5 points to net, since there are a lot of categories up for grabs. Each of these scenarios nets a point for me, with some ballpark odds on any of them happening:

-Whiffers make up 15 runs on Jabrone (100 to 1 shot)
-I make up 13 runs on ISSC (100 to 1)
-Black Sox make up 3 HR on Jabrone (6 to 1)
-I make up 7 RBI on Westy (3 to 1)
-I make up 3 SB on Westy (5 to 1)
-I make up 4 SB on Benver (6 to 1, but very correlated to above)
-Whiffers make up .002 in OBP on Jabrone (6 to 1)
-I make up 3 W on Jabrone (even - I'm loading up on starters this weekend)
-I make up 6 W on Westy (12 to 1)
-I make up 3 K on Jabrone (1 to 4)
-I make up 16K on JimmyDix (2 to 1)
-I make up 0.11 in ERA on ISSC (75 to 1)
-Whiffers make up 0.10 ERA on Jabrone (75 to 1)
-I make up 0.01 in WHIP on Benver (3 to 1)

Plus, I'm tied with JimmyDix in WHIP (even). And there are a couple points that the Jabrones can get (2 SV back from Cheeseheads, .003 SLG back from Whiffers and '90 Reds).

Legitimately, I have a shot. Figure that I'm about 40-60 to get my W's on Jabrones (2 point swing) and get my K's on Jabrones (another 2 points swing). That's 40-60 on 4 points, which leaves me 1 short. If I miss on the 4 points, this is all moot, but if I get the 4, then I've still got to get another point. If I get the 4 points, then I'm probably 2 to 1 to get a point from WHIP, 2 to 1 to get another point in K from JimmyDix, 3 to 1 to get a point in RBI from Westy, but I only need one of those to come through. So put it all together, and I'm giving myself around a 1 in 6 chance to tie, and a 1 in 12 chance to win.

So, the long and the short of it is, I need some luck if we're going to hunt for a Roland Slam this time year. Maybe I can invoke my secret commissioner powers to somehow bench certain team's hitters and pitchers the last couple days :-)

Update, 11:15pm, Saturday: Never mind. Bloody Saturday, I suppose we can call it. 4 starters. 2 L's, 2 ND's. All pretty much got lit. Oh well. Get 'em next year, I suppose.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Major League

In case you haven't noticed, and judging by the attendance, you haven't...

Rank		Team	Points	Pts Change	Waiver	Moves
1.		IamJabrone	111.5	-4	8	63
2.		O.N. Thugs	109.5	-0.5	12	73
3.		IStillSuckCurveballs	109	1	9	19
4.		TheJimmyDixLongballs	102	4.5	7	34
5.		Milwaukee Whiffers	87	0	4	22
6.		'90 Reds	84.5	0.5	2	47
7.		Black Sox	66.5	-1.5	6	28
8.		Phatsnapper	63	3	1	9
9.		Westy's Slugs	57	0	11	73
10.		Cheeseheads	54.5	-2.5	5	25
11.		Muddy Mud Skippers	54	0.5	3	12
12.		Benver Droncos	37.5	-1	10	45

Interesting...

Three teams within 2.5 points of the lead. CJ with an outside shot at a miracle. The best part? 11 of the 12 teams are still checking their teams, updating their lineups. So, every game counts. Every game matters. How cool is that?

Happily, the UPL seems to have managers who will play out the string, unlike some other leagues. However, the bad part for yours truly is that anecdotal evidence (see bottom) suggests that one reason that the owners keep playing is to get me.

I suppose that every story needs a hero and villain. The problem is that people keep getting who's who confused.

We'll figure out who's who after Sept. 28.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Fantasy Karma - In Action

The Football Gods are angry with me and extracting their vengeance for my schadenfreude musings. I'm offically 0-2 and dead last in all leagues. The UPL is the only league that I really care about, and I botched the draft as much as one can botch a draft. Steve Smith. Tom Brady. Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer. Ryan Grant. LT's 20 yard games.

Guess Roland was right.

Fantasy Sports Karma

I've had one of those weeks where I viewed morality in very utilitarian terms. These kinds of weeks scare me. Mostly because while musing about fantasy sports I asked myself if I would intentionally throw a game for a competitive advantage in the playoffs. Like a situation wherein two teams are on the bubble and facing elimination - but wherein one looks like it should be stronger on paper than its been doing - and I bench my starters to allow the "weaker" opponent to lock in a playoff spot and inconvenience the "stronger" team. The answer I arrived at was "maybe", depending on the context.

In a league like the UPL, with its bragging rights stakes and friendly league managers, I dont think I'd do it. While discussing it with Roland he related fears of karma. I'm more afraid of retribution. The UPL is at its core a gathering of friends from increasingly broad sections of life. It also goes on year-round, and there are too many times where cooperation between teams is vital for the chances of all involved. The risk v. reward factor of open mercenary behavior is skewed too far in the risk over a long timeline. It reminds me of listening to Roland complain that C-Lauff was too scared to be involved with any trades with him because of how it worked out during the 2007 baseball season - give and take doesn't work if you become a clear winner at the other persons expense every time. As Ozzie Guillen said of the recent beanball brouhaha between the Royals and White Sox: "Get ready for warnings. I signed a (long term) deal with this organization and we play (the UPLs) a lot."

In a money league of coworkers / random people? I'd throw the game in a heartbeat because I'd expect them to do the exact same thing if they thought of it. At its most negative I'd have to listen to a bunch of account managers bitch and whine at me, and since that's pretty much my job description already it doesn't really pack the same punch.

What are your guys thoughts? Is a little bit of purposeful schadenfreude ok?