UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 2

The 3rd pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Black Sox
History:UPL Newcomer (relatively), with 2 disappointing finishes to begin his UPL Baseball career.

Tendencies: Limited information. Appears to be a White Sox fan (one of two, along with JimmyDix, who comprise the top 2 picks in the 2010 draft... probably not a great thing).

2009 Result: 11th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, Andre Ethier, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Quentin, Jayson Werth

Pitching Locks: Justin Verlander, Chad Billingsley, Joba Chamberlain, Scott Kazmir, Jonathan Papelbon, Frank Francisco

Probable Keepers: Andrew McCutchen, Nyjer Morgan, Chris Iannetta, Jose Lopez, Jason Marquis, Joey Devine

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Top heavy offense, mainly because they have the largest vegetarian in the history of man. Aside from obvious star power (Hanley and Prince), Ethier is emerging as a legit fantasy starter.

Offensive Question Marks: Carlos Quentin is coming off another injury-plagued season, and has only had one legitimate season (2008), and even then he only played in 130 games. His health would give this team a lot of flexibility. Morgan played well above his career numbers once he got moved to Washington, after he was replaced by McCutchen in Pittsburgh (who is still learning the game). Zimmermann and Werth both had career years - they should both be good in 2010, but replicating the output may be tough.

Pitching Strengths: Justin Verlander is good, and there are 3 other SP with high ceilings. Papelbon is a nice anchor for SV.

Pitching Question Marks: Obviously, the question of which Scott Kazmir you're going to get in 2010 is huge. Do you get the one who was very good in his 6 starts in ANA, or do you get the one who stunk in TAM? With Billingsley, you're going to get some glimpses of greatness, but his 2009 was a step back from his very good 2007 and 2008 campaigns. And of course, you have to hope that Joba gets to be the 5th starter, and not the setup man (unless Mo Rivera goes down).

2010 Outlook: Sometimes you look at a team, and you see exactly why they finished where they did. The offense should be solid, not elite. The pitching will need to get lucky to be above average. This team probably shouldn't be an 11th place team. But getting into the top half will require some effort. Out of 13 teams, let's put them a little higher than last year, maybe 8th.

Now, this leaves us with the winners of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft Lottery, the JimmyDixLongballs...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 3

The 3rd pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

'90 Reds
History: 3 time UPL Baseball champion, who has also seen some tough times (10th in 2003, 8th in 2004).

Tendencies: Strategy seems to be evolving. Originally, overvalued starting pitching, at the expense of offense. Currently appears to be looking to build off of elite offensive talent, while patching things together with value in SP. Able to make trades to shore up roster. Seems to get lucky in free agency in successful years (I still can't let go of Bret Boone's 2001* season).

2009 Result: 1st place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Ryan Howard, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, Pablo Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, Jason Bartlett

Pitching Locks: Dan Haren, Javy Vazquez, Edwin Jackson, Wandy Rodriguez, Chad Qualls, Brian Wilson

Probable Keepers: Michael Bourn, Carlos Gonzalez, Billy Butler, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Joe Nathan, Homer Bailey

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Deep offense with some positional flexibility, though Sandoval no longer qualifies at C. Ryan Howard almost single-handedly makes you competitive in HR and RBI. Bourn, Bartlett, and Upton give enough speed to compete for some points. Upton has an ultra-high ceiling.

Offensive Question Marks: Jason Bartlett is coming off of a career year in 2009, at the age of 30, where his OPS was about .190 higher than his previous 2 seasons (where he totaled over 1000 PA's). Which Bartlett will show up? A-Ram is coming off injury, and seems to be more a bit injury prone the last few years. Man-Ram turns 38 this year, is coming off a disastrous 2009* campaign, and has been his usual, unpredictable self, commenting on how this is going to be his last season in LA. Sandoval's weight has been a concern (basically, he's built like me, only he's a bit shorter, and much more skilled) - we'll see if this is something that actually affects performance, and perhaps he can team up with Ryan Howard and Jared for some low fat, Subway $5 footlongs.

Pitching Strengths: Deep SP, with good rate stats across the board. Dan Haren has been a rock for 3 years in a row.

Pitching Question Marks: Obviously, Joe Nathan's situation hurts, and also raises the question of what to do with SV this year. Javy Vazquez, Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, and Brian Wilson are coming off of career years (all 1 run and about .15 below their career ERA/WHIP going into 2009). Which versions will show up in 2010?

2010 Outlook: Sometimes you look at a team, and you wonder how they did as well as they did. Looking at this roster, there were a lot of players who had career years in 2009 (Wandy, Jackson, Vazquez, Wilson, Bartlett), which explains the 2009 success. It's hard to imagine all of them coming up roses again in 2010. That said, assuming average luck, this team should be good enough to be easily in the top-half of this league. And the management should be strong enough to put the '90 Reds into the top 4. Where in that top 4 is an interesting question. If I was guessing (and I am), I'd say 3rd place.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 4

The 4th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Benver Droncos
History: UPL Regular, who apparently is now in Seoul Korea, enjoying Seoul Food, watching Seoul Train, and driving a Kia Seoul.

Tendencies: Since a 5th place debut in 2005, the Droncos have been mired in a huge slump, finishing last 3 out of the last 4 years.

2009 Result: 12th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, Hunter Pence, B.J. Upton, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino

Pitching Locks: J.A. Happ, Scott Feldman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Cordero, Brian Fuentes

Probable Keepers: Vladimir Guerrero, Marlon Byrd, Franklin Gutierrez, Hank Blalock, Garrett Jones, Kerry Wood, Hiroki Kuroda, Brett Anderson

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Morneau is a quality player to anchor offense. Lots of speed with Upton, Rollins, Victorino. Balance to the team, with many players with 12-20 HR potential.

Offensive Question Marks: Unfortunately, the balance on offense will probably lead to mediocre performance, at best. Rate stats will be problematic, as there are many low to mid OBP guys, and not a ton of power. Bounce back year for Upton and Rollins would be very helpful. And being able to move some speed to get back some pitching or power would appear to be a priority.

Pitching Strengths: Some young talent who had good 2009 seasons (Happ, Jimenez, and Feldman). Two potentially elite closers in Fuentes and Cordero.

Pitching Question Marks: If Kerry Wood bounces back, the relief corps could really help in SV and the rate stats, though Fuentes' rate number last year were a little off. The youth (the three mentioned, plus Brett Anderson) needs to come through, and if so this pitching staff would be above average.

2010 Outlook: The offense looks to be average, given the lack of power and rate stats. However, trading speed for power could be a quick way to change the flavor of this team. The pitching looks to be below average, though if things fall correctly, that could push upwards. This team should be in rebuilding mode, and trying to acquire some more young talent, for a run at the podium next year (or more likely, in 2 seasons). This season? Hopefully staying out of the cellar again, but it will be tough to get into the top half of the league. This feels like a 10th place team.

Now, we move into the winners of the 2010 UPL Lottery...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 5

The 5th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Hats for Bats
History: UPL Newcomer, who was hyped by eventual 2010 champion, '90 Reds. However, 2009 proved to be a learning experience.

Tendencies: N/A. Apparently is a Marlins fan?

2009 Result: 10th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: A-Rod, Jose Reyes, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips,

Pitching Locks: Roy Halladay, Heath Bell, Jose Valverde

Probable Keepers: Ryan Ludwick, Juan Rivera, Corey Hart, Vernon Wells, Ben Zobrist, Erik Bedard, Derek Lowe, Jeff Niemann, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: A-Rod and Adrian Gonzalez provide a nice foundation on offense. Jose Reyes and Brandon Phillips have the potential to be a potent 2B/SS combo at shallow positions.

Offensive Question Marks: As good as Phillips' counting stats are, his OBP is maddeningly low, and his SLG isn't particularly great. Ludwick regressed dramatically off of his career year in 2008. Corey Hart has been mediocre since his breakout 2007. Juan Rivera has been good in limited playing time in past, and will get the first shot at being in the OF everyday. Vernon Wells has shown glimpses of greatness in his career, but has also been a fantasy team killer in the past. This collection of OF'ers needs to come through. Ben Zobrist has a breakout 2009 and will be called upon to repeat in 2010.

Pitching Strengths: Roy Halladay is good. Two potentially good closers in Bell and Valverde.

Pitching Question Marks: Lack of certainty at SP is difficult. Scherzer and Bedard are high K guys with good WHIP. Health is the key for Bedard. Scherzer will have to adjust to the AL, though he will have a pitcher's park to do it in. Porcello has a high ceiling, but hasn't put it together, yet. Niemann has a lower ceiling, and looked solid in 2009. Both players will be called upon this year. Ideally, Derek Lowe becomes trade bait after a good start, since he'll win enough for you to play him, but his K rate and rate stats probably hurt you in the long run.

2010 Outlook: The offense looks to be average, but could become good if Reyes bounces back and Phillis gets some help in Reds real-life lineup. The pitching is going a work in progress, and success for this team will depend on youngsters Scherzer, Porcello, and Niemann. This team is in a funny spot where it's not quite obviously rebuilding, but contending this year probably doesn't happen unless everything clicks. This makes it harder to be definitive about a strategy. Assuming that Hats for Bats' luck is about average, we'll place them as a 7th place team, right in the middle of the road.

This is a very important outcome, since this means the JimmyDix has won the 3rd lottery spot. This means that last year's last place team, Benver Droncos has fallen out of the top 3 and will be selecting 4th.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 6

The 6th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Muddy Mush Heads

History: UPL Regular whose finishes range from middle of the pack to the bottom. Looking to find stride in a competitive UPL environment.

Tendencies: To be honest - no idea.

2009 Result: 9th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Joey Votto, Carlos Lee, Ichiro, Grady Sizemore, Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins

Pitching Locks: Johan Santana, Johnny Cueto

Probable Keepers: Rafael Furcal, Jermaine Dye, Aaron Harang, Tommy Hunter, Phil Hughes, Takashi Saito, Jonathan Sanchez

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Good speed on offense.

Offensive Question Marks: Lack of depth and power. Much of the offense will depend on Sizemore bounching back after a terrible 2009 campaign. Votto is coming off of a bout with vertigo, though he appeared to come back reasonably well at the end of 2009. Figgins' change of scenery may not affect him as much, as his power isn't his strength.

Pitching Strengths: Johan Santana is good. Cueto has a high ceiling.

Pitching Question Marks: Lack of depth at SP and no closers makes for a problem. The pitching will likely be bad. What could save it: Harang with a bounce-back year. Hunter continuing to develop. Saito sharing the closer's role in ATL. Phil going into the NYY rotation, and throwing well as the 5th starter. The thing is, all of these have to go right, for the pitching to be above average.

2010 Outlook: The offense looks to be about average, and the ceiling isn't very high. Also, depending on aging speed guys generally isn't the blueprint that you want to follow, either in real-life or fantasy. The pitching is going to be problematic, and needs some help. Ideally, some of the veterans start off hot, so that these players can be moved for younger talent in a true rebuilding process. If Harang throws well off the bat, Saito gets a few early SV, Dye starts off hot, there may be some potential moves to be made. More realistically, players like Ichiro, Carlos Lee, Figgins, Brian Roberts, and even Johan Santana have to be examined as potential trade bait. This team should probably look to rebuild, as a podium finish is highly unlikely.

This means that a 2nd team has beat the odds, albeit in a slightly less exciting way than the '90 Reds. The Black Sox have jumped into the top 3 of the 2010 UPL Draft.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)