UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 7

The 7th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Phatsnapper

History: UPL Regular who has been feast (2006 champions) or famine (bottom half of league in '07, '08, and '09).

Tendencies: Has been focused on young players, even before the UPL became a keeper league. Appears to be an stat-based owner, though grasp of elementary logic and applied statistics has been questioned in the past. Tends to disappear once team is out of contention (which has been May/June in recent years).

2009 Result: 7th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Michael Young, Matt Kemp, Adam Jones

Pitching Locks: Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Tommy Hanson, Yovani Gallardo

Probable Keepers: Josh Hamilton, Matt Weiters, Nolan Reimond, Brad Hawpe, Yunel Escobar, David Price, Madison Bumgarner

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Great top end talent (Mauer, Teixeira, Beltran, Kemp, Hamilton)

Offensive Question Marks: Many, many young unproven players. Even guys like Adam Jones have questions about whether they will end up being solid or spectacular fantasy players. Some injury concerns for Hamilton, Beltran, and Mauer, given their track records.

Pitching Strengths: Excellent SP. Greinke and King Felix coming off of a 1-2 Cy Young finish. Hanson, Price, Bumgarner and Gallardo are young and have high ceilings.

Pitching Question Marks: Giving up on SV, which may leave rate stats a bit more exposed than it would appear just by looking at SP. Greinke, Hernandez, and Wainwright are all coming off of career years. Will they replicate, or will they regress more to their career averages? Hanson and Gallardo are both 24 this season, so the variance could come into play (either good or bad).

2010 Outlook: The pitching will be at least good, possibly great, and should be competing with the O.N. Thugs for the top of the pitching categories. However, giving up on a category (SV) forces you to be perfect elsewhere. The offense may not be deep enough to compete, though if things all fall together, this team could contend for a title. This has the feel of a top-half team, and is one of 4 or 5 teams that should be looking for a championship.


-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 8

The 8th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Cheeseheads

History: UPL Regular who seems to always finish right in the middle of the league. One podium finish (3rd place in 2003).

Tendencies: Somewhat of a silent UPL owner. One of two Milwaukee fans in the UPL (really? 2 out of the 20 or so UPL regulars? Strange.)

2009 Result: 6th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson, Adam Lind, Carlos Pena, Troy Tulowitski

Pitching Locks: Matt Cain, Ted Lilly, David Aardsma

Probable Keepers: David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Randy Wells, Joel Pineiro, Randy Wolf, Mike Gonzalez

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: This offense looks loaded for the counting stats, complete with speed. Good mix of guys hitting their prime (Lind, Tulo, Miggy, Crawford), and reliable veterans.

Offensive Question Marks: Oddly enough, the rate stats (particularly OBP) could be a concern, which is strange given the emphasis on OBP in the Moneyball-era. Some injury issues w/ Ortiz, Konerko, Soriano could arise. Soto looking for a bounceback year. There is some question about some guys who have only had one great season (Lind) or have been inconsistent (Tulo). And despite his big profile move to NY, Granderson has actually been trending downward as a player the last 2 seasons (though his HR numbers popped last year).

Pitching Strengths: Matt Cain was pretty good last year. Ted Lilly seems to always be solid. Aardsma looks to be the closer for an improved Seattle team. That's about it.

Pitching Question Marks: Many. Lack of depth and quality. The pitching looks as questionable as the offense looks good. Let's just say that you don't want to be looking to keep guys like Randy Wells, Joel Pineiro, and Randy Wolf. Those are the guys you want to find in free agency in July...

2010 Outlook: The offense should be solid, and competitive in the counting stats, though may give away some points in OBP. The pitching will struggle to get to average. A couple smart moves could really change the fortunes of this team, and make this team a podium contender - the offense could be that good. But until then, this feels like a 6th or 7th place team.

Since the initial shakeup with the '90 Reds getting into the top 3, things have moved according to plan. When we come back, we'll announce the 7th pick of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 9

The current buzz in the green room is the potential of a 2nd expansion team in 2010. Apparently negotiations are still on going, but league sources suggest that one of the original UPL Football owners has reached a preliminary agreement to expand into 2010 UPL Baseball... More on this as things develop.

The 9th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

SuckMyKnuckleballs

History: UPL Regular who generally finishes in the top half, though there are surprisingly few podium finishes (3rd place in 2008 is only baseball podium finish).

Tendencies: Generally willing to trade, though not the most active trade partner. Likes Red Sox players, which has been a good thing the last few years.

2009 Result: 5th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Jason Bay, Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew

Pitching Locks: Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Roy Oswalt, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Ryan Franklin

Probable Keepers: Mark DeRosa, Hideki Matsui, Scott Rolen, Miguel Tejada, Kurt Suzuki, Tim Hudson, Dice-K, Gavin Floyd

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Overall offense should be strong. Braun, Bay, and Youks provide a very nice anchor to team.

Offensive Question Marks: There's a lack of speed on the current roster, which would have to be augmented in the draft or free agency. The offense (and the roster in general) feels old, with players like Tejada, Rolen, Matsui, DeRosa, etc. well into their 30's. Health will be a big concern.

Pitching Strengths: Three top flight options at closer, and will likely finish in the top 3 in SV, which also should help with the rate stats.

Pitching Question Marks: Starting pitching could be a bit problematic. Beckett and Burnett have been enigmas, dating back to their days together w/ the Marlins as flamethrowing prospects in the early 20-aughts. Again age could be a concern, as Beckett is 30 this season, and is the youngest of the starters that are certain to be kept. Gavin Floyd is still only 27, though he's likely on the bubble.

2010 Outlook: On both sides of the coin, this team looks to be solid, not spectacular. This should be another season where SuckMyKunckleballs finishes above .500, but may not have enough to get on to the podium. This feels like a 5th to 6th place team.

When we come back, we'll announce the 8th pick of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 10

The 10th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

O.N. Thugs

History: Self-proclaimed UPL GOAT, with 5 championships and 2 runner-up finishes. However, has had a relative lack of success in recent years, with only one shared championship since 2006.

Tendencies: Goes through players like Ari Gold goes through assistants. Will make one or two trades involving legitimately good players to round off roster. Historically favors veterans with predictable performance.

2009 Result: 4th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: David Wright, Adam Dunn, Nick Markakis, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Shin-Soo Choo

Pitching Locks: Tim Lincecum, Cris Carpenter, Clayton Kershaw, Jake Peavy, Francisco Rodriguez, Joakim Soria, Andrew Bailey

Probable Keepers: Todd Helton, Josh Willingham, Julio Borbon, Russell Martin, Elvis Andrus, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Strong OBP team, and strangely, has some speed with the young Rangers players. Has some talent at the shallow positions up the middle (C, SS, 2B).

Offensive Question Marks: It's all about the power. How will David Wright, Todd Helton, and Nick Markakis' power numbers look? Was expecting power from Delgado and Thome last year, but was let down. Still need to find power this year.

Pitching Strengths: Top talent across the board. At least 2 elite SP (Lincecum and Carpenter) and at least 2 top flight closers (K-Rod and Soria). Likely to get top tier performance out of either Peavy or Kershaw, if not both. Bailey appears to be a legitimate option for SV.

Pitching Question Marks: Injury questions for Carpenter (chronic) and Peavy (off of last season's surgery). Kershaw needs to continue development, but has high ceiling. Not sure about Ben Sheets or Rich Harden, but strong performances will allow for roster flexibility. A 4th closer may be in the works via draft or trade.

2010 Outlook: The pitching will anchor this team, and finishing in the top 3 in each of the pitching categories is not out of the question. On the other hand, this team will struggle to be in the top third of the league in the power categories on offense. The pitching alone makes this a top half team, and the high OBP and speed potential puts this team on the podium again this year. The power will drive the final finish. Predictions? Let's just say that you never bet against the O.N. Thugs.

When we come back, we'll announce the 9th pick of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 11

And we're back from break. As we keep moving forward in the lottery, some thoughts related to the major news that the '90 Reds have beat the odds and will be selecting in the top 3 of the drafts: Who's going to be unkept? Where does someone like Stephen Strasburg (who's eligible to be drafted) go? What sort of strategy will we see in the first couple rounds? Obviously, we'll have more to say about this once keepers are announced in a few weeks. But until then...

The 11th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Westy's Sluggers

History: Traditionally a top-half UPL franchise, but a relative lack of success, with 4 podium finishes (one 2nd and three 3rd place finishes).

Tendencies: Westy's Pawn Shop was an early UPL comedy device that has stood the test of time, due to the lowball offers that keep coming from Westy (and draw some amusing responses).

2009 Result: 3rd place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Chase Utley, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, Raul Ibanez, Russell Branyan, Nate McLouth

Pitching Locks: John Lackey, Jon Lester, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, Jair Jurrjens

Probable Keepers: Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Alex Rios, Stephen Drew, Howie Kendrick, Leo Nunez, Matt Garza, Scott Baker

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Utley, Berkman, and Holliday give you a lot of certainty on offense, and should combine for something like .395/.510, and on the low end, give you 80HR, 285 R, 285 RBI and 30 SB. Strong depth in OF, which should provide trade fodder. Bobby Abreu had a very nice 2009, despite his power being off, and contributed 30 SB.

Offensive Question Marks: Nate McLouth and Alex Rios were really off last season. Bounce back seasons from these guys will be helpful since... Torii Hunter, Raul Ibanez and Russell Branyan duplicating their numbers from is a big question. There should be enough depth so that the offense will stay strong, and if everyone comes through, this team will have a lot of pieces to trade. As with most teams, there is a lack of quality at SS and C. And if Branyan doesn't replicate his 2009, and instead plays to his career average, 3B could be a problem area.

Pitching Strengths: Depth at SP. The names of the SP all sound really good. But each of them has questions surrounding them...

Pitching Question Marks: How will Lackey adjust to Boston? Has Lester made The Leap? How will Webb come back from injury? Is Big Z's drop off the last couple years the new reality? Can Jurrjens replicate his success year-to-year? If the results are more good than bad, then the starting pitching will be strong. However, if it's more bad then good, then it will be tough - it's hard to give up on these sorts of names, and you can easily keep trotting these guys out for 4 or 5 more starts than you should. And these are the "lock" keepers. How do Garza and Baker develop? Garza appears to have a high ceiling, but had a bad 2009. Baker doesn't have as high a ceiling as Garza, but was good enough last year. And we haven't even gotten to the major issue. This team has no closers, save for Leo Nunez. Fernando Rodney managed to get 37 SV last year, but he'll be setting up Fuentes with LAA this year.

2010 Outlook: The decision to either a) give up on SV, or to b) try to trade for SV should be made early, and will influence early season moves. This team overachieved on offense last year, so expecting that level of performance again may be a bit of a stretch. But the offense should be good in 2010. Westy managed to make some solid moves to improve the SP, and if everything falls right, this will be a top 3 team. However, if things don't all fall right, something like a 7th place finish isn't out of the question. Best guess? We'll split the difference, and predict a 4th place finish.

When we come back, we'll announce the 10th pick of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)