Friday, February 26, 2010

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Picks 13 and 12

This year, I'm going to combine the baseball preview and the lottery announcements, and put out a series of posts, counting down the lottery results. Currently, the plan is to have the UPL Draft on or around March 27, and it's looking like it's going to be an evening draft so as to accommodate the 17 hour time difference for our first international franchise: The Seoul Benver Droncos. And we are adding our first expansion team, the Milwaukee Whiffers. As a result, the keeper schedule will change slightly.

March 13 - All teams must submit 12 keepers from last year's final rosters.
March 17 - The Milwaukee Whiffers must submit a list of 12 players, one from each of last year's teams, who was not kept in the March 13 round of keepers.
March 20 - All teams must submit 6 more keepers, from last year's final rosters.
March 24 - The Milwaukee Whiffers must submit a list of 6 more players, from the remaining unkept players from last year's final rosters, with no more than 1 from each team.
March 27 - 8-round draft.

So without further ado, the results of the UPL Baseball Draft Lottery, with season previews.

The 13th pick of the 2010 UPL Baseball goes to:

Milwaukee Whiffers

History: Traditionally a middle of the pack UPL franchise, with a top finish of 4th place in 2007.

Tendencies: Not afraid to make trades to shake things up, but often trades work out poorly (and draw the ire of the Commish).

2009 Result: DNP - Wedding Planning

Likely Keepers
: N/A

Strengths and Question Marks: N/A

2010 Outlook: Basically, it appears that the Whiffers will start off with twelve 13th round picks, and six 19th round picks... which doesn't sound all that great, but if you look at the players that were available beyond the 13th and 18th rounds last year, there is talent available. Top end result looks to be maybe 4th place? And 7th or above would be considered a win. The goal should be to compete by year 3, which is entirely possible.

This takes us to the results of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft Lottery, where immediately, you see a major shakeup. The 12th pick of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

IAmJabrone

History: Traditionally a top-end UPL franchise, with 6 podium finishes, including a win and two 2nd place finishes.

Tendencies: Can be a feast or famine team, as they typically rely on draft and free agency, rather than trades to round out rosters.

2009 Result: 2nd place

Likely Keepers:

Offense Locks: Albert Pujols, Mark Reynolds, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hill, Dan Uggla

Pitching Locks: C.C. Sabathia, Josh Johnson, Cole Hamels, Jonathon Broxton, Huston Street

Probable Keepers: Jay Bruce, Johnny Damon, Ian Stewart, Jason Kubel, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Dempster, Ricky Nolasco, Billy Wagner, Matt Capps, Jorge de la Rosa

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Albert Pujols. You can live with Ellsbury never making contact when you have The Machine doing what he does. Power appears to be good, with a couple 20+ HR guys (Uggla, Damon) offering stability to go with Pujols' all-world numbers.

Offensive Question Marks: Major questions for players coming off of career years - Mark Reynolds, Aaron Hill, and Jason Kubel. The odds of that trio replicating their 2009 numbers would seem to be low, and those three played a major role in the 2nd place finish last year. Also looking for Jay Bruce to take a step forward. Needs an upgrade at SS, C, and perhaps UTIL2. The OBP looks like it will be weak, when you trot out a couple guys at .330. Could compete in SB, if one more speed guy is picked up.

Pitching Strengths: Top end SP; RP. Sabathia and Johnson are a stabilizing force for ERA, WHIP, and K. Broxton and Street are legit options.

Pitching Question Marks: After Sabathia and Johnson, the SP all has question marks. A bounce back season from Cole Hamels, a huge 2009 disappointment, and a continuation of the 2009 2nd half Ricky Nolasco will go a long way. Jorge de la Rosa seems to have good stuff, but isn't consistently dominant. Who knows what Buchholz and Dempster will get you. The Francisco Liriano Experiment should be officially over for IAmJabrone, and Westy should get his rightful place as the next experimenter. A little more certainty with SV will also be helpful, since we're not sure what Capps will look like in WAS or what Wagner's role in ATL will be.

2010 Outlook: Should probably try to send one of the SP question marks out to a team with excess at C or SS, since help in the draft or free agency is unlikely at those thin positions. Any time you send out Albert Pujols, you'll compete on offense, and you don't have to be perfect drafting or in free agency. More question marks will show up on the pitching side of things, and will decide if this team is a 5th place team or a title contender. Best guess? We'll go with history and guess that IAmJabrone is a top 3 team.


What's interesting is that this means that the defending champion '90 Reds have defied the lottery odds and moved into the top 3 of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft... when we return, we'll announce the 11th pick of the draft.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Saturday, February 13, 2010

More UPL Voices

Hey folks. In addition to Greg's musings, we have another place to hear about sports/fantasy thoughts:

Pauly's Fantasy Hoops and Baseball Corner

We may have to talk to Pauly about the name of the blog - not the sexiest name out there :-)

But in any case, anytime we get to hear from more folks, it's a W.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Announcement: 2010 UPL Baseball Draft Lottery

Alright folks. Just like what we did with UPL Basketball, we're going to have a draft lottery. And following the NBA tradition, as well as the UPL Baseball tradition, everyone's eligible for the first pick.

Top 3 draft positions go via lottery, and then the remaining slots (4 through 11) will go in reverse order of finish. Tiebreakers will be settled by reverse order of finish the prior UPL Baseball season, with the team finishing lower getting preference. If needed, further tiebreakers will look back at prior UPL Basketball seasons.

Here's how the lottery works. I've given each team a set number of "lottery tickets," each of which correspond to one of the 10,000 possible 4-digit combinations (i.e., 0000 through 9999). Each team received an allotment of numerical combinations, corresponding to their order of finish. Specifically, their final rank was divided by 78, and then multiplied by 10,000.

Here's a reminder of the order of finish from last season, and the corresponding "tickets" assigned to each team.

Rank Team Tickets
1 '90 Reds 128
2 IamJabrone 256
3 Westy's Sluggers 385
4 O.N. Thugs 513
5 SuckMyknuckleballs 641
6 Cheeseheads 769
7 Phatsnapper 897
8 Black Sox 1026
9 Muddy Mush Heads 1154
10.5 TheJimmyDixLongballs 1346
10.5 Hats for Bats 1346
12 Benver Droncos 1539
78 TOTAL
10000

Just like in UPL Basketball, each team receives a number of lottery tickets, according to their order of finish. The number received is equal to their rank, divided by the total number of ranking points. Last year we had 12 teams, so the 1st place '90 Reds receive a 1 in 78 chance to win lottery, 7th place Phatsnapper receives a 7 in 78 chance, and 12th place Benver Droncos receive a 12 in 78 chance.

The specific number on each lottery ticket was randomly assigned. I will send out this master list to all of the UPL owners as a .pdf file that is password protected, and will provide the password to everyone once the lottery is completed. This ensures that no one gets to see the results beforehand, and also that whatever results I report are on the up and up.

The next step is to figure out which number combinations. Obviously, since I'm the only one who knows the list, I can't have anything to do with the number combinations. I will ask OD, Westy, CJ, and C-Lauff to randomly generate 30 digits between 0 and 9, (http://www.random.org), and e-mail them to me. The first digit that each one sends will make up the winner of the lottery. Specifically, the first digit will be OD's number, the 2nd digit will be Westy's number, the 3rd digit will be CJ's number, and the 4th digit will be C-Lauff's number.

The next number in each person's list of numbers will be used to determine the 2nd and 3rd overall picks, with repeat winners discarded (i.e., if the recipient of the 1st overall pick is selected, their winning combinations are then discarded, and replaced with the next number on the list).

If there are expansion teams, they will be assigned a slot at the end of the first round.

In any case, I'm looking forward to seeing everyone sign up, and announcing the draft lottery results.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Pitchers and Catchers (finally) Report

2010 UPL Baseball is here! UPL: Fighting Jose Offerman is going to be our first examination of how our baseball keepers will affect our franchises long term fortunes.

In the coming weeks we'll be conducting our 1st Annual UPL Baseball Draft Lottery, announcing the 1st edition of the UPL Baseball Keepers (due on March 20th), and finally conduct our UPL Baseball Draft on March 27th.

In the meantime, if you are curious about what players are on each team's rosters, click here:

http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/archive/mlb/2009/172426/rosters

Be on the lookout for more announcements in the coming weeks!

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Monday, January 18, 2010

Not Bullish. Not Bearish. Definitely Thuggish: An (Almost) Decade of UPL Hijinks

With the close of the Twenty-Aughts, the UPL has evolved from a haphazard grouping of random chumps into... well... uh... maybe we haven't evolved from a membership standpoint. But we've been innovating quite a bit. In both baseball and basketball, we've moved from a season-long points league, to a roto league. And this has probably been for the better, since our points leagues were always largely decided 2/3 of the way through (if not earlier). Now, with the roto format, we've had some incredibly exciting finishes the last few years, with a number of ties.

In football, we've always been a little ahead of the curve with our stats, and have been pushing the limits of roster complexity by having additional flex positions and allowing return yardage. And recently, we have added individual defensive players to the point where now we have 4 starting defensive players, in addition to a team defense. We haven't started drafting punters, but you better believe that as soon as Yahoo! adds that feature, we'll be figuring out what round we should draft Shane Lechler in (probably the 9th, if you had to know it).

Interestingly, leagues like this pretty much run themselves, once you have things up an running. And with as much momentum as we've gained in the 9 years since our start-up back in 2001 Baseball, we've been able to add on some innovations, including this space. The UPL Blog has been a fun little project, which we've undertaken (and are always looking for more authors!). But I think that need for a space like this really took off with the idea that we were going to try to extend the reach of the fantasy season by going with keeper leagues in baseball and basketball. And with any keeper league, you have to figure out new rules, like how you will handle keepers, the draft order, etc. The UPL Blog has let us make these announcements, even when Yahoo! doesn't have things ready to go. Part of the innovation has been things like doing a UPL Draft Lottery prior to the basketball season, which was a successful venture. I believe that we'll carry it over into baseball.

As much as I love thinking about how we've been able to improve the UPL, and having some ideas of where we want to go forward, that's not really why we play the game. At the end of the day, it's all about the jewelry.

Sport Year Teams Champ 2nd 3rd 4th
Baseball 2001 10 '90Reds O.N. Thugs IamJabrone Westy
Baseball 2002 ? O.N. Thugs ? ? ?
Baseball 2003 11 O.N. Thugs IamJabrone Cheeseheads SuckCurveballs
Baseball 2004 14 O.N. Thugs Champaign Toast Westy GenEric
Baseball 2005 12 O.N. Thugs IamJabrone Westy SuckCurveballs
Baseball 2006 11 Phatsnapper Westy O.N. Thugs IamJabrone
Baseball 2007 11 O.N. Thugs (tie) '90Reds (tie) IamJabrone Milwaukee
Baseball 2008 12 IamJabrone O.N. Thugs SuckCurveballs JimmyDix
Baseball 2009 12 '90Reds Westy IamJabrone O.N. Thugs
Basketball 2002 9 O.N. Thugs Tweedledumm C-Lauff SuperFriends
Basketball 2003 12 O.N. Thugs Westy 3 Men & Afro SuckBasketballs
Basketball 2004 9 Westy O.N. Thugs Sparty Groove
Basketball 2005 7 Westy O.N. Thugs Milwaukee Groove
Basketball 2006 8 O.N. Thugs (tie)
IamJabrone (tie)
SuckBasketballs Milwaukee
Basketball 2007 10 O.N. Thugs IamJabrone chowtime Westy
Basketball 2008 12 O.N. Thugs IamJabrone chowtime Westy
Basketball 2009 11 O.N. Thugs (tie) Stephan (tie) Sparty IamJabrone
Football 2001 9 I Giocatori ChrisF Dino Panda Bears
Football 2002 12 I Giocatori Westy IamJabrone GenEric
Football 2003 14 O.N. Thugs Tweedledummer I Giocatori (tie) Tweedledumm (tie)
Football 2004 14 Tweedledumm Tweedledummer Cheeseheads O.N. Thugs
Football 2005 14 I Giocatori IamJabrone O.N. Thugs Yvonne
Football 2006 10 I Giocatori O.N. Thugs GenEric IamJabrone
Football 2007 12 JimmyDix O.N. Thugs I Giocatori Dino
Football 2008 12 IamJabrone Stephan I Giocatori O.N. Thugs
Football 2009 14 Dino Stephan O.N. Thugs IamJabrone

First of all, does anyone remember anything from 2002 Baseball (# of teams, who finished 2nd, 3rd, etc.). Yahoo! doesn't have any records of that year. All I remember is that the O.N. Thugs won, and it was was the last year we did a points league, because for the 2nd straight year, the season was over by mid-July, and people stopped checking their team. And I seem to recall Greg finishing in the bottom half, and not being able to follow-up his inaugural victory. If you could help me fill in the blanks, that would be great.

In any case, some interesting things to look at here. First of all in the roto leauges, the UPL has a definite Thuggish flavor, with the O.N. Thugs taking home 6 out of 8 championships in hoops, and 5 out of 9 in hardball. But that isn't to say that there isn't some competition in each. In both sports, there are repeat champs ('90 Reds with 3 baseball titles and Westy with 2 hoops titles). And those O.N. Thugs victories weren't all clean victories (a baseball tie w/ '90 Reds, and 2 hoops ties, one with IamJabrone, and one with Stephan). And recently, there have been some rumblings in baseball, where the '90 Reds have been champs 2 out of the last 3 years, and where IamJabrone has actually outperformed the O.N. Thugs two years running. In fact, the O.N. Thugs - IamJabrone interactions has actually started to look like a rivalry, with the two franchises going toe-to-toe on a regular basis, including this year's hoops rivalry which is essentially a dead heat between the two teams halfway through the season.

Perhaps the most impressive feat is in UPL Football, where resident savant I Giocatori has managed to win 4 times, with no one else able to claim more than one title. In fact, UPL Football has had the most diversity with 6 different champions over 9 seasons with 4 of those champs having never won a UPL title in another sport. Just for the record, we've had 4 champs in baseball and 2 in hoops.

We've had some unlikely champions throughout the UPL history. There was 2007 Football, where UPL newcomer JimmyDix not only rolls through the regular season as the #1 seed, but actually verifies things by rolling through the playoffs, en route to a championship in his first UPL experience, making UPL regulars like Schultzie and GenEric throw up in their mouths. There was 2004 Football, where Tweedledum and Tweedledummer played in probably the most unlikely football final in UPL history, with Tweedledum taking home the title, leaving Tweedledummer in 2nd place for the 2nd year in the row. This was a far cry from the Tweedledummer who neglected to look at the scoring rules, and decided that defense wins championships, and picked the Pittsburgh Defense in the 1st round back in 2002. And of course there was 2006 Baseball where Phatsnapper somehow took home a title, sandwiched between 17th place finishes every year before that and every year since.

And there have been some amazing wins by familiar faces. Like in 2006 Football, where I Giocatori backs into the playoffs with the 8th seed, at 6-7, only to punk Westy in the opening round, and then squeeze out two tough W's over the Jabrones and Thugs to win his 4th ring. There was 2007 Baseball and 2009 Basketball, where the O.N. Thugs were left for dead, lingering in 10th place or so at the half-way point, only to loudly storm back for championships, and betting on themselves along the way. In fact, the O.N. Thugs bet the Jabrones a dollar that they would finish ahead of them in 2007 Baseball. At the time, the O.N. Thugs were mired in 10th place, and the Jabrones were in 1st, so it appeared to be a sucker's bet, against the O.N. Thugs. What happened was a ridiculously rise into first, which resulted in the UPL Bill, which is signed by the Jabrones, carries the name of every UPL Baseball champion, and is currently the only UPL trophy. A similar story happened in 2008 Basketball, when the O.N. Thugs were decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, but managed to stay afloat long enough to wait for their players to get healthy and make a run at the title. Interestingly, in both instances, the O.N. Thugs actually managed to take a clean lead in the league, only to give back a half point on the last day of the season and end up in a tie for 1st.

As we open up the Twenty-Teen's, the UPL looks as strong as ever, with a healthy 14 team football season, and two healthy keeper leagues in baseball and basketball. Things should be exciting, as we move into decade #2 for the UPL.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)