UPL Basketball Keepers and Preliminary Analysis

The UPL Basketball draft is only days away. And keeper lists have been submitted for the first time in UPL history. Here's the damage. I've listed the keepers for each team, along with the Yahoo! pre-rank.

IamJabrone		Floor burns		Phatsnapper
3	Dwyane Wade	30	Kevin Martin	9	Amar'e Stoudemire
25	Joe Johnson	33	Shawn Marion	17	Steve Nash
31	Gilbert Arenas	50	Stephen Jackson	19	Antawn Jamison
34	Carmelo Anthony	63	Mo Williams	42	Ray Allen
38	Josh Smith	67	Leandro Barbosa	90	Wilson Chandler
48	David Lee	73	Paul Millsap	95	Andrew Bogut
51	Derrick Rose	78	Lamar Odom	99	T.J. Ford
60	Al Horford	93	Richard Jefferson	137	Kenyon Martin
Love Timberwolves		Milwaukee Bricks		SuckMyDribblingBalls
7	Kevin Durant	37	Elton Brand	6	Kobe Bryant
10	Chris Bosh	39	Jason Richardson	18	Tim Duncan
55	Rajon Rondo	41	Baron Davis	20	Dwight Howard
54	Rudy Gay	46	Andris Biedrins	23	Jason Kidd
66	Andre Miller	49	Mehmet Okur	71	John Salmons
77	Zach Randolph	69	Al Harrington	98	Andrei Kirilenko
84	Josh Howard	74	Eric Gordon	128	Greg Oden
87	Kevin Love	81	Jason Terry	153	Rudy Fernandez
chowtime		Westy's Balltastics		Sparty Rules
5	Dirk Nowitzki	12	Kevin Garnett	1	Chris Paul
6	Danny Granger	13	Al Jefferson	15	Chauncey Billups
8	Pau Gasol	16	Caron Butler	35	Troy Murphy
27	Vince Carter	22	Andre Iguodala	47	Marcus Camby
53	Jameer Nelson	24	Devin Harris	57	Hedo Turkoglu
65	Tony Parker	28	Paul Pierce	59	Andrea Bargnani
88	Chris Kaman	58	Nene Hilario	89	Boris Diaw
102	Thaddeus Young	92	Luis Scola	94	Marvin Williams
Wakeup with the King		O.N. Thugs
2	LeBron James	11	Brandon Roy
21	Jose Calderon	14	Deron Williams
26	Gerald Wallace	29	Brook Lopez
36	Rashard Lewis	32	David West
43	Manu Ginobili	40	LaMarcus Aldridge
56	O.J. Mayo	44	Carlos Boozer
68	Andrew Bynum	45	Monta Ellis
108	Shaquille O'Neal	70	Russell Westbrook

And just for a crude analysis, here are some averages for each team:

TEAM	AVG	TOP7	TOP6	TOP5	TOP4
IamJabrone	36.3	32.9	29.8	26.2	23.3
Floor burns	60.9	56.3	52.7	48.6	44.0
Phatsnapper	63.5	53.0	45.3	35.4	21.8
Love Timberwolves	55.0	50.4	44.8	38.4	31.5
Milwaukee Bricks	54.5	50.7	46.8	42.4	40.8
SuckMyDribblingBalls	64.6	52.0	39.3	27.6	16.8
chowtime	44.3	36.0	27.3	19.8	11.5
Westy's Balltastics	33.1	24.7	19.2	17.4	15.8
Sparty Rules	49.6	43.3	35.7	31.0	24.5
Wakeup with the King	45.0	36.0	30.7	25.6	21.3
O.N. Thugs	35.6	30.7	28.3	25.2	21.5
EXPECTED	44.5		33.5		22.5

Here, I've listed each team's average pre-rank, based on the Yahoo! rankings of their 8 keepers, their top 7, their top 6, etc. Across the bottom, I've also listed the expected values.

It's not surprising that teams that finished towards the bottom last year would have keepers with lower pre-ranks (and higher values in this table), and that teams that finished toward the top would have higher pre-ranks. Of course, this gets a little out of whack, when owners take chances on players ranked in the 100's (like OD, who actually has two Trail Blazers on his keeper list, Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden, who are ranked128 and 153, respectively)

Immediately some things should jump out at you. First of all, there are 3 teams with quality across their top 8: Westy, IAmJabrone, and the O.N. Thugs, each of whom have average pre-ranks in the 30's for their 8 keepers. Even more interesting is that Westy has the best average across this top 8 (heck, Paul Pierce was his 6th ranked player, and he was 28th overall), but finished tied for 5th place last year. This may explain Westy's comments about how he is still shocked that he didn't win last year. Also, in retrospect, the commish failed in his duties when he neglected to squash the Caron Butler for Tayshaun Prince trade.

If you believe in getting superstars, and then filling in the holes, then Chowtime should be a scary team this year. They have three out of the top 8 ranked players (Dirk, Granger, and Gasol). On the flip side, Floor Burns and Milwaukee Bricks would be in trouble with that criteria (and many other criteria), since their top players are ranked in the 30's. Interestingly, there are two other teams who lack players in the top 10. Shockingly, they are Westy and the O.N. Thugs. In both cases, they have multiple players in the top 20, and ton of players ranked in the top 50, but none of the top 10. I suppose that this just indicates that there are a many different ways to fill out a fantasy roster.

And yet another way to look at the quality of the teams is by the players that they didn't keep. The remaining top-100 players are:

Michael Redd (52) - IAmJabrone
Charlie Villanueva (61) - IAmJabrone
Ben Gordon (62) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Bibby (64) - Chowtime
Anthony Randolph (72) - IAmJabrone
Jeff Green (75) - SuckMyDribblingBalls
Rasheed Wallace (76) - Sparty Rules
Blake Griffin (79) - n/a
Spencer Hawes (80) - Phatsnapper
Emeka Okafor (82) - Milwaukee Bricks
J.R. Smith (83) - Milwaukee Bricks
Tyrus Thomas (85) - O.N. Thugs
Ron Artest (86) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Conley (91) - Love Timberwolves
Brad Miller (96) - Sparty Rules
Trevor Ariza (97) - n/a
Jason Thompson (100) - IAmJabrone

Interestingly, we see that the Milwaukee Bricks actually let go of two players in the 80's. But this isn't a questionable move, because they were actually their 9th and 10th rated players. Also, IAmJabrone and O.N. Thugs both had difficult choices in keeping lower-rated players (#60 Al Horford over #52 Michael Redd; #70 Russell Westbrook over #62 Ben Gordon). But perhaps the most interesting non-keeper is #64 Michael Bibby, who Chowtime dropped in lieu of not only #65 Tony Parker, but also #88 Chris Kaman, as well as #102 Thaddeus Young. Of course, this may also offer insight into why Westy didn't win last year, since none of the other players on his roster made this list. Really, his roster stopped at 7 players (#92 Luis Scola was his 8th keeper), and it appears that enough ground was made up by the O.N. Thugs and the European Sellouts (aka WakeUpWithTheKing) with the 3 remaining starting positions to overtake him.

All in all, this is a superficial look at the inaugural UPL keepers. And this superficial look suggests that we'll have a three team race for the top this year between IAmJabrone, Westy, and the O.N. Thugs. IAmJabrone probably has the inside track, given his luck in the UPL Lottery. To round off his team, the Jabrones will have 3 of the first 23 picks to fill in the rest of his starting 10. On the other hand Westy's 3rd pick will be 28th, and the Thugs' 3rd pick will be 33rd. But, as we all know, there's the actual season to be played, and many moves in free agency to be made. You can also make the case for top-heavy teams (Chowtime and SuckMyDribblingBalls) who will have a lot more certainty in their superstars' stats, and will know better how to build their supporting cast. Sparty is a regular on the UPL podium, though still w/out a UPL championship ring. And we haven't even mentioned the defending co-champ WakeUpWithTheKing!

In any case, if last year is any indicator, UPL Basketball will be a shootout. There were 7 very competitive teams last year, 6 of whom finished within 4 points of the title. Naturally, I'm hoping for a less exciting result, as I'm still predicting an O.N. Thugs sort of season. But that's the most predictable part of any preseason writeup I make, isn't it?

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2009 UPL Baseball Post-Season Awards

It's the end of another UPL Baseball season, so with further ado:

All-UPL First Team:

C: Joe Mauer, Phatsnapper
1B: Albert Pujols, IAmJabrone
2B: Chase Utley, Westy's Sluggers
3B: Mark Reynolds, IAmJabrone
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Black Sox
OF: Ryan Braun, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Carl Crawford, Cheeseheads
OF: Matt Kemp, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Ryan Howard, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Mark Teixeira, Phtasnapper
SP: Zack Greinke, Phatsnapper
SP: Tim Lincecum, O.N. Thugs
SP: Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
SP: Chris Carpenter, O.N. Thugs
SP: Roy Halladay, Hats for Bats
RP: Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKnuckleballs
RP: Joe Nathan, '90 Reds
RP: Heath Bell, Hats for Bats

All-UPL Second Team

C: tie, Victor Martinez, '90 Reds Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
1B: Prince Fielder, Black Sox
2B: Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone
3B: tie, Miguel Cabrera, Cheeseheads and Evan Longoria, JimmyDixLongballs
SS: tie, Derek Jeter, O.N. Thugs and Troy Tulowitzki, Cheeseheads
OF: Matt Holliday, Westy's Sluggers
OF: Jason Bay, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Adam Lind, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Ryan Zimmerman, Black Sox
UTIL: Derek Lee, JimmyDixLongballs
SP: Javy Vazquez, '90 Reds
SP: Dan Haren, '90 Reds
SP: Adam Wainwright, Phatsnapper
SP: Matt Cain, Cheeseheads
SP: Justin Verlander, BlackSox
RP: Ryan Franklin, SuckMyKunckleballs
RP: Jonathan Broxton, IAmJabrone
RP: Jonathan Papelbon, Black Sox

All-UPL Team Killers

C: tie, Russell Martin, O.N. Thugs and Geovony Soto, Cheeseheads
1B: Chris Davis, IAmJabrone
2B: Alexei Ramirez, JimmyDixLongballs
3B: Garrett Atkins, free agent - drafted by Hats for Bats
SS: Jose Reyes, Hats for Bats
OF: Grady Sizemore, Muddy Mush Heads
OF: Josh Hamilton, Phatsnapper
OF: Alfonso Soriano, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Carlos Beltran, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Carlos Quentin, Black Sox (corrected, 10/15)
SP: Brandon Webb, Westy's Sluggers
SP: Cole Hamels, IAmJabrone
SP: Jake Peavy, O.N. Thugs
SP: Ervin Santana, Westy's Sluggers
SP: Francisco Liriano, IAmJabrone
RP: Brad Lidge, JimmyDixLongballs
RP: Kerry Wood, Benver Droncos
RP: Matt Capps, IAmJabrone

Team of the Year: '90 Reds
Manager of the year: Westy
UPL MVP - Ryan Howard, '90 Reds
UPL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
UPL Fireman Award - Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKunckleballs
UPL Rookie Pitcher - Andrew Bailey, O.N. Thugs (apologies to J.A. Happ and Tommy Hanson)
UPL Rookie Hitter - Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
UPL Out of Nowhere Pitcher - Randy Wolf, Cheeseheads
UPL Out of Nowhere Hitter - tie, Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone, Ben Zobrist, Hats for Bats and Kendry Morales, JimmyDixLongballs

As usual, comment away.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2009 UPL Basketball Draft Lottery (part II)

And, we are back from commercial. The Commish is ready to announce the top 5 picks in the 2009 UPL Basketball Draft.

5th - Milwaukee Bricks

This is the 2nd big announcement of the day. This means that a 2nd team, Floor Burns has defied odds, and has entered the top 3 in the lottery. And perhaps just as importantly, this also means that of the two lowest finishers, Phatsnapper and Love T'Wolves, only one of them will be selecting in the top 3.

4th - Love T'Wolves

The 10th place Love T'Wolves get a bit unlucky and fall to the 4th pick.

3rd - Phatsnapper

The last place Phatsnappers fall two slots, and end up with the 3rd pick in the 2009 UPL Basketball draft. This leaves the two teams who defied the lottery odds: the 4th place IAmJabrone, who had approximately a 11.8% chance of selecting in the top 2, and Floor Burns, who were about twice as likely to select in the top 2, at 22.8%.

...with out further ado.

2nd - Floor Burns

This means that the first pick in the 2009 UPL Baskeball draft belongs to:

1st - IAmJabrone

Amazing. Despite having only a 6.06% chance, IAmJabrone's string of good fortune continues, as they land the top pick in the draft.

SOME LOTTERY INFO

The password for the .pdf file that I sent to everyone is:

hullabaloo

That should unlock the file so any external audits can be done. The specific numbers used in the lottery are as follows:

Order	Westy	C-Lauff	OD	Jeff	Lotto Ticket	Team
1	7	1	5	3	7153	IAmJabrone
omit	1	6	9	2	1692	IAmJabrone
2	1	1	5	3	1153	Floor Burns
3	2	5	0	4	2504	Phatsnapper
	7	2	5	4	7254	Sparty

Interestingly, after IAmJabrone received the 2nd pick, they actually won the lottery again, and had the 2nd number selected, which is a 0.367% event. Apparently the UPL Gods were smiling on the Jabrones quite a bit. And just for giggles, the 4th lottery slot would have gone to Sparty had we done more lottery-assigned slots. Also, with regard to the 30 numbers generated by Westy, C-Lauff, OD, and Jeff, none of them were assigned to either of last year's co-champions, the O.N. Thugs and European Sellouts. So, despite Greg's hope, there was no controversy to be had with an O.N. Thugs #1 draft pick.

In any case, it's time to start figuring out who everyone's keeping. The draft is on Saturday, Oct. 24 at 10:30am, and keepers are due one week before the draft, preferably earlier.

Best of luck in the upcoming season.

IAmJabrone is now on the clock.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2009 UPL Basketball Draft Lottery (part I)

The first annual UPL Basketball Draft Lottery has been conducted. As a reminder, lottery selections have been made for the first 3 picks of the 2009-10 UPL Basketball Draft, with the remaining draft slots made in reverse order of finish from last year. The order of finish, and the corresponding odds of selecting 1st in the draft are as follows:

	Rank	Odds
Phatsnapper	11	16.67%
Love T'Wolves	10	15.15%
Milwaukee Bricks	9	13.64%
Floor Burns	8	12.12%
Dribbling Balls	7	10.61%
Chowtime	6	9.09%
Westy's Ballers	5	7.58%
IAmJabrone	4	6.06%
Sparty Rules	3	4.55%
O.N. Thugs	1.5	2.27%
European Sellout	1.5	2.27%
TOTAL	66	100.00%

Part I of the draft lottery results are as follows.

11th - O.N. Thugs


The O.N. Thugs are selecting 11th, due to UPL tiebreaker rules, based on their higher finish the previous season.

10th - European Sellout

The European Sellouts are selecting 10th, after their almost miraculous final day recovery to tie for the UPL championship.

9th - Sparty Rules

So far, things are moving according to plan.

8th - Westy's Ballers

Wow. This is huge news, folks. This means that IAmJabrone has defied the lottery odds, and has won one of the top three selections in the 2009 UPL Basketball Draft.

7th - Chowtime

After a little craziness at the top of the draft, the lottery is back on track.

6th - Dribbling Balls

With the first half of the lottery completed, the only aberration is IAmJabrone beating the odds to land one of the top 3 picks.

We're going to take a short commercial break, and we'll come back to announce the rest of the 2009 UPL Basketball Draft Lottery results.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Announcement: 2009-10 UPL Hoops: Delonte's Shooting Ability

Happily, our UPL league names are still tasteless. Our UPL Basketball draft has been set for Saturday, Oct. 24 at 10:30am, central time.

Additionally, I've also figured out how we're going to do this whole drafting thing for hoops. We're taking a cue from The League, and we're doing a draft lottery. And everyone's eligible for the first pick.

Top 3 draft positions go via lottery, and then the remaining slots (4 through 11) will go in reverse order of finish. Tiebreakers will be settled by reverse order of finish the prior UPL Basketball season, with the team finishing lower getting preference. If needed, further tiebreakers will look back at prior UPL Basketball seasons.

Here's how the lottery works. I've given each team a set number of "lottery tickets," each of which correspond to one of the 10,000 possible 4-digit combinations (i.e., 0000 through 9999). Each team received an allotment of numerical combinations, corresponding to their order of finish. Specifically, their final rank was divided by 66, and then multiplied by 10,000. Here's the number of "lottery tickets"

Team	Rank	"Tickets"
Phatsnapper	11	1666
Love T'Wolves	10	1515
Milwaukee Bricks	9	1364
Floor Burns	8	1212
Dribbling Balls	7	1061
Chowtime	6	909
Westy's Ballers	5	758
IAmJabrone	4	606
Sparty Rules	3	455
O.N. Thugs	1.5	227
European Sellout	1.5	227
TOTAL	66	10000

The specific number on each lottery ticket was randomly assigned. I am sending out this master list to all of the UPL owners as a .pdf file that is password protected, and will provide the password to everyone once the lottery is completed. This ensures that no one gets to see the results beforehand, and also that whatever results I report are on the up and up.

The next step is to figure out which number combinations. Obviously, since I'm the only one who knows the list, I can't have anything to do with the number combinations. I will ask Westy, C-Lauff, OD, and Jeff to randomly generate 30 digits (http://www.random.org), and e-mail them to me. The first digit that each one sends will make up the winner of the lottery. Specifically, the first digit will be Westy's number, the 2nd digit will be C-Lauff's number, the 3rd digit will be OD's number, and the 4th digit will be Jeff's number.

We will repeat this process until we have assigned the top three selections of the draft.

In any case, we'll see how this goes, and then figure out if we like the idea of a lottery for all UPL keeper leagues.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)