I had commented on the potential impact that real-life NBA moves have on our UPL environment before, and there's a major trade that could impact the O.N. Thugs in a major way. The rumor is Boozer to Chicago, Tyrus Thomas to Utah, and Kirk Hinrich to Portland. And considering that I not only own Boozer and Thomas, I also own D-Will, Roy, and Aldridge. From my perspective, there are some individual components to look at.
Impact on Utah: D-Will's going to make plays, no matter who's around him, it seems. They lose out an a legit low block scorer, but get to put AK-47 back into the starting PF role (where he was thriving a few years ago), and get to put Tyrus Thomas/Paul Millsap into the hustle man off the bench, which is what Tyrus Thomas was doing, anyway. The benefit is that Thomas would be, at worst the 4th big on the roster (whereas his playing time in Chicago was just confusing, with not only Brad Miller, Joakim Noah, and Luol Deng taking minutes, but also John Salmons taking minutes at the 3). Plus, having D-Will set up Tyrus in an offensive system (rather than just waiting for a rebound after Gordon or Salmons jack up a shot) should improve his scoring numbers as he'll get one or two more cheap dunks off of D-Will's work.
Impact on Chicago: They finally get a legit low post scorer. And having Boozer as a complement to Brad Miller (who's comfortable in the high post as a shooter/passer) will be nice. Noah silps into a clear role as the "hustle big" that every contender seems to had/have (Chris Andersen in Denver, Varejao in Cleveland, Leon Powe in Boston, etc.). Boozer can get his numbers anywhere, I think, and should still put up 18 points and 10 boards, at the low end (and if the Bulls play faster, maybe more).
Impact on Portland: They get an upgrade from Steve Blake, but also someone who can play some pretty solid D, shoot reasonably well from outside. But more importantly for me, he lets Brandon Roy have the ball in his hands more and doesn't take shots from Aldridge.
I think that I am rooting for this trade to go through, although this just doubly confirms that I botched the Boozer pick last year. I had picked Boozer because I thought that it would be cool to watch D-Will to Boozer for the foreseeable future, and passed up Dwight Howard. Whoops. Oh well. We'll see how things shake out, but it's looking more and more interesting, and it'll be fun to see what moves people make with their keepers.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Throwing The Game... The Baseball Edition
In my other baseball league we've got a few stat categories that can play differently than the UPL's, mainly because its a weekly heads-up league. Our pitching is ranked by 9 stats, all worth 1 point each...
1. Innings Pitched
2. Wins
3. Complete Games
4. Saves
5. Walks (least wins pt)
6. K
7. ERA
8. WHIP
9. K/9
Well, I'm in a situation where my starting pitching kicked ass in the beginning of the week and I'm thinking that I'd be ok with winning most of the categories but benching all but my closers. I like and trust my closers, who have done well for me over there, but I'd almost certainly be punting Innings Pitched, Wins and Strikeouts. But 30 innings with no walks and a K/9 of 11 is something to be cherished and protected, I think.
1. Innings Pitched
2. Wins
3. Complete Games
4. Saves
5. Walks (least wins pt)
6. K
7. ERA
8. WHIP
9. K/9
Well, I'm in a situation where my starting pitching kicked ass in the beginning of the week and I'm thinking that I'd be ok with winning most of the categories but benching all but my closers. I like and trust my closers, who have done well for me over there, but I'd almost certainly be punting Innings Pitched, Wins and Strikeouts. But 30 innings with no walks and a K/9 of 11 is something to be cherished and protected, I think.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
New Positions in Football
Apparently, they're letting us have more positions.
They've added new flex positions. In addition to WR/RB and WR/TE, you can also have WR/RB/TE or QB/WR/RB/TE.
I don't think that adding a 2nd QB each week is a great idea. However, one change that I'm thinking is that we switch it to just having two guys at WR/RB/TE, instead of 1 each at WR/RB and WR/TE? This makes for a little more flexibility with the bye weeks.
Also, with individual defensive players, we used to just pick 2 guys at any position. Now, they are letting us have specific positions: DE, DT, LB, CB, and S (if you want to get really specific), DL and DB (a little less specific), and of course, you can still have just D (any position at all).
I'm sort of leaning toward going with 4 individual defensive players: DL, LB, DB, and D. Thoughts?
Finally, they are adding a "rivalry week" feature, where we can have an additional game against a specific rival. This can't get set up until everyone signs up. But, this is cool. We've got a 12 team league, with 13 regular season games. This means that you can play everyone once, and then we can have 2 weeks where you can play a particular rival. I'd think that it would be sweet to have the first and last week of the season be rivalry weeks.
So, this means that everyone gets 2 rivals. Any requests for your personal rivalries? Some interesting rivalries in the UPL... I sort of want an extra shot at Mikey. And C-Lauff, too. Of course, those rivalries are against two of the more successful franchises... I guess that if I was smart, that I'd try to go for a perennial bottom feeder as my rival... Jeff? You're playing football, right? :-)
Mikey/Bobby makes sense. I'm guessing that Westy/C-Lauff would be a pretty natural one. Schultzie/Olthoff seems to make sense. I think that this is sort of cool...
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
They've added new flex positions. In addition to WR/RB and WR/TE, you can also have WR/RB/TE or QB/WR/RB/TE.
I don't think that adding a 2nd QB each week is a great idea. However, one change that I'm thinking is that we switch it to just having two guys at WR/RB/TE, instead of 1 each at WR/RB and WR/TE? This makes for a little more flexibility with the bye weeks.
Also, with individual defensive players, we used to just pick 2 guys at any position. Now, they are letting us have specific positions: DE, DT, LB, CB, and S (if you want to get really specific), DL and DB (a little less specific), and of course, you can still have just D (any position at all).
I'm sort of leaning toward going with 4 individual defensive players: DL, LB, DB, and D. Thoughts?
Finally, they are adding a "rivalry week" feature, where we can have an additional game against a specific rival. This can't get set up until everyone signs up. But, this is cool. We've got a 12 team league, with 13 regular season games. This means that you can play everyone once, and then we can have 2 weeks where you can play a particular rival. I'd think that it would be sweet to have the first and last week of the season be rivalry weeks.
So, this means that everyone gets 2 rivals. Any requests for your personal rivalries? Some interesting rivalries in the UPL... I sort of want an extra shot at Mikey. And C-Lauff, too. Of course, those rivalries are against two of the more successful franchises... I guess that if I was smart, that I'd try to go for a perennial bottom feeder as my rival... Jeff? You're playing football, right? :-)
Mikey/Bobby makes sense. I'm guessing that Westy/C-Lauff would be a pretty natural one. Schultzie/Olthoff seems to make sense. I think that this is sort of cool...
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Monday, July 6, 2009
What's in a Name? UPL Football 2009-10:
...McNair Dating Service.
What? Too soon?
In any case, it appears that Yahoo! is finally catching up with the times and has made a few adjustments (including offering the live stats for free, which they've been charging for for about 5 years now). So, we've got a couple options. Sadly, having fantasy punters is not of of these options. But allowing some customization for the waivers process is.
The first is weekly waivers. Essentially, what it does is puts all available players on waivers starting on Sunday night, and then processes waivers right before midnight on Tuesday (players go on to rosters starting Wednesday). Practically, what this means is 2 things. For those of you who make last minute roster moves to pick up players for Monday night would have to do so before 10pm on Sunday. And second, this gives everyone the same chance at available players. Westy asked for this years ago. I'm inclined to move to weekly waivers, but will give everyone the chance to chime in.
Second, if we do have the weekly waivers, how do you want to do the waiver priority? There are multiple options. The first is to do the waiver order, just like we do now, initially based on where you draft, and then each pick-up puts you to the back of the line. A second option is essentially reset the waiver order each week, so that the team in last place has first priority. A third option (and one that I find intriguing) is to go with the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB), which creates a blind, single-bid auction for each person you want to acquire on waivers. In the case of a tie, then the tiebreaker would fall back to season standings. In this scenario, everyone will start with the same budget at the start of the season (say, $130). This also puts a cap on the number of waiver acquisitions that you can make, since each acquisition costs at least $1. Then at the end of the regular season, I'll reset all of the playoff teams budgets back to $130.
What do you guys think? I mean, besides that I'm an ass for already naming the league after Steve McNair.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
What? Too soon?
In any case, it appears that Yahoo! is finally catching up with the times and has made a few adjustments (including offering the live stats for free, which they've been charging for for about 5 years now). So, we've got a couple options. Sadly, having fantasy punters is not of of these options. But allowing some customization for the waivers process is.
The first is weekly waivers. Essentially, what it does is puts all available players on waivers starting on Sunday night, and then processes waivers right before midnight on Tuesday (players go on to rosters starting Wednesday). Practically, what this means is 2 things. For those of you who make last minute roster moves to pick up players for Monday night would have to do so before 10pm on Sunday. And second, this gives everyone the same chance at available players. Westy asked for this years ago. I'm inclined to move to weekly waivers, but will give everyone the chance to chime in.
Second, if we do have the weekly waivers, how do you want to do the waiver priority? There are multiple options. The first is to do the waiver order, just like we do now, initially based on where you draft, and then each pick-up puts you to the back of the line. A second option is essentially reset the waiver order each week, so that the team in last place has first priority. A third option (and one that I find intriguing) is to go with the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB), which creates a blind, single-bid auction for each person you want to acquire on waivers. In the case of a tie, then the tiebreaker would fall back to season standings. In this scenario, everyone will start with the same budget at the start of the season (say, $130). This also puts a cap on the number of waiver acquisitions that you can make, since each acquisition costs at least $1. Then at the end of the regular season, I'll reset all of the playoff teams budgets back to $130.
What do you guys think? I mean, besides that I'm an ass for already naming the league after Steve McNair.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Keeper Rosters and One Team's Thought Process
So, this won't be as amusing as my take on the Iranian elections, but the NBA free agency period makes for some interesting dynamics on your keeper decisions. And just for reference, here are the final rosters from last season.
Lots of interesting choices, just based on the rosters. For example, there's a good chance that of Michael Redd, Gilbert Arenas, and Charlie Villaneuva, two of the three will be available. But there are also interesting changes in the dynamics, based on how the players' situations have changed (or not changed) in real life.
Obviously, injuries to people like Yao make for a tough situation. Do you just drop him, or do you hold on to him for the entire year? But an interesting thing comes up with you have free agents change locations. For example, we can start with Vinsanity going from Jersey to Orlando. If I had to guess, his numbers will probably stay roughly the same. And the void he leaves in Jersey probably means that Devin Harris gets a couple more shots, and that Brook Lopez gets more shots. But if you look to Orlando, this also means that Hedo Turkoglu (aka MJT, or the Michael Jordan of Turkey) is going somewhere else. If he had gone to Portland, the Blazers probably would have had a better team. However, there's a good chance that the numbers for Turkoglu, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldrige all decrease. That would have been a decidedly bad thing for the O.N. Thugs. Happily, it appears that MJT's taking his act up north to the Raptors... where this probably doesn't affect anyone a whole lot, and may even get Chris Bosh a couple more layups.
In any case, the O.N. Thugs have choices. We're keeping 8 out of 14. Here's how things look:
Must-Keep (6): Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, Carlos Boozer, David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brook Lopez.
Basically, there are a few obvious choices. D-Will and Roy are stone cold locks. Boozer was hurt, but is a 20 and 10 guy. David West is a 20 and 9 guy, who makes FT's. Aldrige comes in at 18 and 8. And Brook Lopez's 13, 8, and 2 blocks (and efficient scoring) becomes a must keep because of the scarcity of quality at C, even if Vince stays in Jersey. And truth be told, I was committed to Lopez, when I dropped Tyson Chandler last season to make a run at the championship.
Looking at this roster, it looks like there will be good scoring (at and efficient rate), very good rebounding, and slightly above average shot blocking and steals. D-Will can make up ground on assists, and only Lopez turns the ball over too much. However, the outside shooting is so-so. D-Will and Roy are OK from 3, but none of the bigs really shoot from 3. So who will round things out?
Probably Set Free (4): Antonio McDyess, Jermaine O'Neal, Mario Chalmers, Ron Artest
And as you look down the roster, you see two bigs that you can't keep: McDyess (age, uncertain where he'll play), and Jermaine O'Neal (showed some glimpses, but age has gotten to him, as well). Mario Chalmers would help with the STL and 3PM, but at 10 points and 5 assists (D-Wade has the ball too much), you just can't go down that road with a keeper. Same for Artest, since he has gotten a little old, and you have no idea where he'll fit w/ the Lakers. So who's left?
Question Marks (4, keep 2): Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, Monta Ellis, Russell Westbrook
Gordon puts up 20 a game, makes his FT's, and makes a lot of 3's. He would definitely keep the O.N. Thugs competitive in 3PM. But, he's also moving to a Pistons team that already has Stuckey (who needs the ball in his hands), and Rip Hamilton (who needs a lot of shots). Not sure what to think about that lineup.
Tyrus Thomas really came into his own toward the end of the season. Since February, he was about 13.5 PTS, 7.5 REB, 2.2 BLK, 1.2 STL, and was reasonably efficient from the floor (47.1%/77.5%). He should be improving, and getting a couple more shots with Gordon moving on. But where he really adds value is with the hustle stats. If he's getting the 31 minutes per game that he got toward the end of last season, you almost have to keep him.
Monta Ellis is coming off injury, but did put up 19 per game and was good from the line, though his shooting was a little off from the previous year (down to 45%, from 53%). You also saw some struggles for him at the point, and his AST numbers actually went down, despite the move to point. Nellie Ball runs fast, but that offense goes through Captain Jack... You'd forgive this if he was good in another category, but he doesn't shoot 3's, and his peripheral stats are mediocre. But he's young, and ultra talented, just like
Russell Westbrook. The comparison is to a young D-Wade. He was about 15 PTS, 5.5 AST, 5 REB, and 1.2 STL. He makes his FT's (81.5%), but is really bad from the floor (39.8%), and doens't shoot 3's often or well, but he can score in bunches (5 games over 30 points). The most important thing for Westbrook was that the Thunder didn't pick a PG in the draft. This means that Westbrook will be running the show for these guys.
At this point, I'm probably going to keep Tyrus Thomas, since he'd really stabilize the STL and BLK numbers. Gordon's the safe choice, but even with him, I was bad at 3PM last year. Westbrook's got the most upside, since he gets all sorts of hustle numbers. But Ellis has the potential to be a 25 point guy, as well... I think that part of it depends on where I end up drafting (side note - I've got a plan for the lottery, just haven't had a chance to post the idea).
In any case, the rosters are posted here. We'll get the lottery taken care of in a couple weeks, and I'll assign keepers about a week before the draft (which will be about a week before the start of the season).
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
| European Sellouts | O.N. Thugs | Sparty Rules |
| O.J. Mayo | Deron Williams | Chris Paul |
| LeBron James | Brandon Roy | Richard Hamilton |
| Nate Robinson | Ben Gordon | Hedo Turkoglu |
| Shaquille O'Neal | Ron Artest | Boris Diaw |
| Rashard Lewis | Carlos Boozer | Troy Murphy |
| Jose Calderon | David West | Andrea Bargnani |
| Gerald Wallace | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chauncey Billups |
| Marc Gasol | Antonio McDyess | Grant Hill |
| Manu Ginobili | Brook Lopez | Rasheed Wallace |
| Tracy McGrady | Tyrus Thomas | Brad Miller |
| Raymond Felton | Mario Chalmers | Matt Barnes |
| Matt Bonner | Russell Westbrook | Marcus Camby |
| Luke Ridnour | Monta Ellis | Marvin Williams |
| Andrew Bynum | Jermaine O'Neal | Samuel Dalembert |
| IAmJabrone | Westy's Ballers | Chowtime |
| Derrick Rose | Jarrett Jack | Tony Parker |
| Joe Johnson | Andre Iguodala | Danny Granger |
| Al Horford | Devin Harris | Kelenna Azubuike |
| David Lee | Paul Pierce | Pau Gasol |
| Anthony Randolph | Andres Nocioni | Chris Andersen |
| Carmelo Anthony | Caron Butler | Dirk Nowitzki |
| Josh Smith | Al Jefferson | Vince Carter |
| Dwyane Wade | Mike Miller | Mike Bibby |
| Charlie Villanueva | Steve Blake | Zydrunas Ilgauskas |
| Jason Thompson | Nene Hilario | Jamal Crawford |
| Ronny Turiaf | Luis Scola | Ronnie Brewer |
| Al Thornton | Kevin Garnett | Chris Kaman |
| Gilbert Arenas | Tyson Chandler | Thaddeus Young |
| Michael Redd | Luol Deng | Jameer Nelson |
| Dribbling Balls | Floor Burns | Milwaukee Bricks |
| Jason Kidd | Leandro Barbosa | Baron Davis |
| Kobe Bryant | Kevin Martin | Eric Gordon |
| Rafer Alston | Lamar Odom | J.R. Smith |
| Mickael Pietrus | Shawn Marion | James Posey |
| Jeff Green | Tayshaun Prince | Luc Mbah a Moute |
| John Salmons | Kendrick Perkins | Michael Beasley |
| Dwight Howard | Paul Millsap | Mehmet Okur |
| Tim Duncan | Stephen Jackson | Emeka Okafor |
| Rudy Fernandez | Mo Williams | Andris Biedrins |
| Corey Maggette | Joakim Noah | Jason Terry |
| Andrei Kirilenko | Marquis Daniels | Jason Richardson |
| Derek Fisher | Richard Jefferson | Ramon Sessions |
| Greg Oden | Rodney Stuckey | Al Harrington |
| Mike James | Peja Stojakovic | Elton Brand |
| Love Timberwolves | Phatsnapper |
| Andre Miller | Allen Iverson |
| Kevin Durant | Randy Foye |
| DeShawn Stevenson | Steve Nash |
| Linas Kleiza | Antawn Jamison |
| Chris Bosh | Amar'e Stoudemire |
| Kevin Love | Wilson Chandler |
| Yao Ming | Andrew Bogut |
| Zach Randolph | Spencer Hawes |
| Josh Howard | Kenyon Martin |
| Rajon Rondo | Drew Gooden |
| Anthony Parker | Ray Allen |
| Mike Conley | T.J. Ford |
| Rudy Gay | Mike Dunleavy |
| Cuttino Mobley | Francisco Garcia |
Lots of interesting choices, just based on the rosters. For example, there's a good chance that of Michael Redd, Gilbert Arenas, and Charlie Villaneuva, two of the three will be available. But there are also interesting changes in the dynamics, based on how the players' situations have changed (or not changed) in real life.
Obviously, injuries to people like Yao make for a tough situation. Do you just drop him, or do you hold on to him for the entire year? But an interesting thing comes up with you have free agents change locations. For example, we can start with Vinsanity going from Jersey to Orlando. If I had to guess, his numbers will probably stay roughly the same. And the void he leaves in Jersey probably means that Devin Harris gets a couple more shots, and that Brook Lopez gets more shots. But if you look to Orlando, this also means that Hedo Turkoglu (aka MJT, or the Michael Jordan of Turkey) is going somewhere else. If he had gone to Portland, the Blazers probably would have had a better team. However, there's a good chance that the numbers for Turkoglu, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldrige all decrease. That would have been a decidedly bad thing for the O.N. Thugs. Happily, it appears that MJT's taking his act up north to the Raptors... where this probably doesn't affect anyone a whole lot, and may even get Chris Bosh a couple more layups.
In any case, the O.N. Thugs have choices. We're keeping 8 out of 14. Here's how things look:
Must-Keep (6): Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, Carlos Boozer, David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brook Lopez.
Basically, there are a few obvious choices. D-Will and Roy are stone cold locks. Boozer was hurt, but is a 20 and 10 guy. David West is a 20 and 9 guy, who makes FT's. Aldrige comes in at 18 and 8. And Brook Lopez's 13, 8, and 2 blocks (and efficient scoring) becomes a must keep because of the scarcity of quality at C, even if Vince stays in Jersey. And truth be told, I was committed to Lopez, when I dropped Tyson Chandler last season to make a run at the championship.
Looking at this roster, it looks like there will be good scoring (at and efficient rate), very good rebounding, and slightly above average shot blocking and steals. D-Will can make up ground on assists, and only Lopez turns the ball over too much. However, the outside shooting is so-so. D-Will and Roy are OK from 3, but none of the bigs really shoot from 3. So who will round things out?
Probably Set Free (4): Antonio McDyess, Jermaine O'Neal, Mario Chalmers, Ron Artest
And as you look down the roster, you see two bigs that you can't keep: McDyess (age, uncertain where he'll play), and Jermaine O'Neal (showed some glimpses, but age has gotten to him, as well). Mario Chalmers would help with the STL and 3PM, but at 10 points and 5 assists (D-Wade has the ball too much), you just can't go down that road with a keeper. Same for Artest, since he has gotten a little old, and you have no idea where he'll fit w/ the Lakers. So who's left?
Question Marks (4, keep 2): Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, Monta Ellis, Russell Westbrook
Gordon puts up 20 a game, makes his FT's, and makes a lot of 3's. He would definitely keep the O.N. Thugs competitive in 3PM. But, he's also moving to a Pistons team that already has Stuckey (who needs the ball in his hands), and Rip Hamilton (who needs a lot of shots). Not sure what to think about that lineup.
Tyrus Thomas really came into his own toward the end of the season. Since February, he was about 13.5 PTS, 7.5 REB, 2.2 BLK, 1.2 STL, and was reasonably efficient from the floor (47.1%/77.5%). He should be improving, and getting a couple more shots with Gordon moving on. But where he really adds value is with the hustle stats. If he's getting the 31 minutes per game that he got toward the end of last season, you almost have to keep him.
Monta Ellis is coming off injury, but did put up 19 per game and was good from the line, though his shooting was a little off from the previous year (down to 45%, from 53%). You also saw some struggles for him at the point, and his AST numbers actually went down, despite the move to point. Nellie Ball runs fast, but that offense goes through Captain Jack... You'd forgive this if he was good in another category, but he doesn't shoot 3's, and his peripheral stats are mediocre. But he's young, and ultra talented, just like
Russell Westbrook. The comparison is to a young D-Wade. He was about 15 PTS, 5.5 AST, 5 REB, and 1.2 STL. He makes his FT's (81.5%), but is really bad from the floor (39.8%), and doens't shoot 3's often or well, but he can score in bunches (5 games over 30 points). The most important thing for Westbrook was that the Thunder didn't pick a PG in the draft. This means that Westbrook will be running the show for these guys.
At this point, I'm probably going to keep Tyrus Thomas, since he'd really stabilize the STL and BLK numbers. Gordon's the safe choice, but even with him, I was bad at 3PM last year. Westbrook's got the most upside, since he gets all sorts of hustle numbers. But Ellis has the potential to be a 25 point guy, as well... I think that part of it depends on where I end up drafting (side note - I've got a plan for the lottery, just haven't had a chance to post the idea).
In any case, the rosters are posted here. We'll get the lottery taken care of in a couple weeks, and I'll assign keepers about a week before the draft (which will be about a week before the start of the season).
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
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