Jabrone Rising

Like in real baseball, fantasy baseball is a season of steaks and slumps, highs and lows. Learning how to ride those out is part of the overall approach to managing a winning team. Right now, I'm on the streak of my fantasy life. On May 23rd, I was dead-to-rites in 7th place, somewhere in the low 80's in roto points, and Roland posted this:

"Please tell me that this hasn't become a 2-team league with me and the Boston Red Sox.

I thought that you had traded for David Wright and Grady Sizemore."

Well, I did trade for David Wright and Grady Sizemore, as well as Scott Kazmir. And, I picked up Shane Victorino, Aaron Rowand and Jay Bruce. And all they've done since that magical 23rd of May is the following:

David Wright (11 games): .467 OBP, 10 runs, 3 HRs, 7 RBI's, 2 SB's

Grady Sizemore (10 games): .400 OBP, 6 runs, 4 HRs, 7 RBI's, 4 SB's

Shane Victorino (10 games): .422 OBP, 16 runs, 5 RBI's, 5 SB's

Aaron Rowand (10 games): .476 OBP, 10 runs, 3 HRs, 13 RBI's, 1 SB

Jay Bruce (7 games): .667 OBP, 1.038 SLG, 12 runs, 3 HRs, 7 RBi's, 2 SB's

Scott Kazmir (2 games, 14 innings): 2 wins, 0 losses, .642ERA, .642WHIP, 16Ks

Clearly, the guys mentioned above have been the leaders of this full-on attack of first place. Though, I don't expect the same production from the guys above for the rest of the year, this goes to show that free agent pickups, timely trades and overall effective roster management can give your team the shot in the arm that it needs. It's been good enough to get me 30 extra points and I think the guys are good enough to keep me in the mix.

Now, if I can just get my top 2 draft picks off of the DL (Holiday and Peavy) and have Liriano come back from AAA and produce, I can make Roland sweat the whole year for his run at the UPL baseball trophy. Although this year, I'd like to think that I'm a more formidable contender than in years past.

Off to watch Joba Chamberlain eat up the Toronto Blue Jays as if he were Joba the Hutt. Jabrone rising, my friends, Jabrone rising.

VORPed Minds Think Alike

An interesting baseball stat is Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP. Essentially, what this stat does is give you a picture of what would happen if a team did not have this player, but instead some random guy up from the minors. Now, in the majors, the conceptual definition VORP is sort of subjective based on what each franchise has in the minors. In fantasy baseball, the notion of a replacement player is much easier to define objectively, since everyone has the same pool of replacement players. Additionally, in fantasy, you don't have to worry about defense. So the evaluation is a bit easier.

This perspective also takes into account positional scarcity, since the replacement players for different positions will give you an indication of the scarcity that's in play.

So what's the easy way to do this sort of evaluation? Just look at each position, and note the difference in performance is. For example, look at these season-to-date lines:

Player	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Chase Utley	55	210	42.0	17.0	46.0	5.0	0.394	0.638
Orlando Hudson	45	166	24.0	4.0	26.0	2.0	0.380	0.488
Utley Proj	162	618.5	123.7	50.1	135.5	14.7	0.394	0.638
Hudson Proj	162	597.6	86.4	14.4	93.6	7.2	0.380	0.488
Utley VORP	-	-	37.3	35.7	41.9	7.5	0.014	0.150

What I'm doing is projecting out Utley and Hudson's stats to 162 games. And then, illustrating the difference over 162 games. Of course, you can tweak what numbers you use in the projected values. Maybe you take some weighted average of this year's stats and prior year's stats, or whatever. Or for younger players, you use numbers based on the career arc. I'm also assuming that Hudson is the next best available 2B. This may not bet the case, particularly if you sort stats by the most recent month. But you can use a similar method for evaluation, only projecting out stats based on the most recent month's performance. That may not be the most accurate method, but if you want to try to ride out hot streaks, it could be what you're looking for.

In any case, you can start to see some other things to do. First, if you have a working understanding of what the replacement player levels are, you will have a better picture of the value of players. In fact, looking at these stats, some of these players belong on rosters.

Player	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
C - Olivio	30	106	12	6	22	2	0.333	0.594
C Proj	162	572.4	64.8	32.4	118.8	10.8	0.333	0.594
1B/3B - Cantu	50	198	28	7	24	2	0.332	0.532
1B/3B Proj	162	641.5	90.7	22.7	77.8	6.5	0.332	0.532
SS - Crosby	53	208	27	3	26	4	0.325	0.389
SS Proj	162	635.8	82.5	9.2	79.5	12.2	0.325	0.389
OF - Bradley	48	171	30	8	31	0	0.435	0.561
OF Proj	162	577.1	101.3	27.0	104.6	0.0	0.435	0.561

So what does this get us? First of all, Milton Bradley and Miguel Olivio belong on a UPL roster. But really, you see the difference in what's available. 2B and SS have little value. 3B and 1B are a little better, and both run deeper. There are a lot of talented OF. What's misleading is C. After Olivio, you don't have much.

To get a true picture of each position, you should probably go deeper, maybe average out the top 3 replacement players. Additionally, you also have to account for the number of AB that each player will actually have. But, this is a nice little way of seeing what's available, as well as giving you a consistent metric for evaluating trades and other transactions. Also, I'm projecting stats based on 162 games. Maybe using AB is a better way of doing your projections for some players, since you could account for players who are coming off injury and have been used in pinch hitting roles or players who platoon.

So the notion of scarcity is a very real thing. This approach also helps illustrate what I was talking about in the previous post about injuries.

Player	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
SS Proj	162	635.8	82.53	9.17	79.47	12.23	0.325	0.389
21 SS Games	21	82.4	10.7	1.2	10.3	1.6	0.325	0.389
C Proj	162	572.4	64.8	32.4	118.8	10.8	0.333	0.594
14 C Games	14	49.5	5.6	2.8	10.3	0.9	0.333	0.594
Total Stats	35	131.9	16.3	3.989	20.57	2.518	0.328	0.466

I've lost out on 21 games of Rafael Furcal and 14 games of Ryan Doumit. Here's what I missed out on, with replacement players, prorated for the games missed (this is the upper bound - in actuality, you probably don't get all of those games: likely only 19 games from SS and maybe 10 games from C). See some interesting results? It looks like I missed out on about 16R, 4HR, 21 RBI, 3SB, but would have only had a .328 OBP and a .466 SLG during that time from those 2 positions. And more importantly, my roster flexibility would have been lost. Even if the OBP and SLG weren't a concern for my team (and really, this year, they're not), what this data shows is that my roster flexibility was worth about 16 R, 4 HR, 21 RBI, and 3SB, roughly what I guessed in my last post.

This also helps you evaluate trades. For a little while, Ryan Garko was being shopped around in our league. The problem was that his value wasn't any better than players who were available in free agency at the time. Additionally, since Garko was a 1B, you likely were going to play him at UTIL, so your VORP there has to be based on all positions. It's not like he was a 2B or SS whose stats weren't great, but still better than whatever was available. Those players still have some value, if you can find the right place for them. But at a position where most teams are already set? That's a tough sell.

In any case, VORP isn't a magical stat that's just better than anything else out there, but it's a nice way of looking at players, and matching up values when you need to try to compare apples to apples.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Riding Out Storms

One thing that inevitably comes up in any season is injuries. Now, if they're season-ending injuries, there's not a whole lot that you can do. But in baseball, you have a lot of visits to the 15-day DL that you have to manage. In our league, we can have 2 DL slots, effectively expanding our rosters. But what how do you manage that process?

Of course, the answer is, "it depends." It depends on what your team needs are, what your competitive landscape is, and what your options are.

First of all, I'm a firm believer that both DL slots should be filled at all times. This gives you a free lottery ticket, essentially. Worst case scenario, you just drop the player after they come off of the DL.

So, assuming that your DL slots are already full, the two obvious thoughts are to 1) make a trade, or 2) pick up someone from free agency. The trade can be hard to swing, but if you can afford to move parts around, then it could be a good move. Free agency is a bit tougher. Some positions are deeper, like OF or 1B, and you can pick up a pretty good player who will still help you stay on pace with your cumulative stats, though may hurt you a bit with the rate stats. However, some positions, like C, SS, or 2B, are tough to fill. If you have a solid player at one of those positions, the replacement that's available in free agency may not be worth picking up.

A few years ago, I had I-Rod (when he was still a very good offensive player), and he got hurt for like 3 weeks. I was doing alright with my R, HR, and RBI, so I actually went without a catcher for those 3 weeks, rather than pick up someone like Brent Mayne, who may chip in with 10 runs/RBI, and maybe a HR or two, but would hurt your OBP and SLG by a couple points during that time. But more importantly, they also take up a roster spot. Carrying an extra player makes life a little more difficult. You can't take chances on players, who may get hot.

Flash forward this year, and my C (Ryan Doumit) and my SS (Rafael Furcal) both go down.

So, my options at C were virtually nonexistent. Maybe Miguel Olivio (who's got some pop, it appears) - I could take the hit in OBP, and fight for some RBI and R. But the downside, was that I wouldn't be able to take chances on guys like prospects like Max Scherzer or other pitchers that have gotten hot, like Andrew Miller, both of whom are currently on my roster. So, I've gone w/out a C since Doumit got hurt. He'll be back soon, so I'll get some production back.

In retrospect, I think that I screwed up my move at SS. My original move was to just pick up Jeff Keppinger, and hope that he kept hitting. Then he broke his knee. I thought about picking up Jerry Hairston, and hope that he'd get SB for me. But he started off bad, and the Reds were playing awful then, so I passed. Then I thought that maybe Felipe Lopez would be able to get me some SB. But that didn't work out, and I got bored of him. So, since then, I've gone w/out a SS. If I would've stuck w/ the Hairston idea, I would have 6 more SB right now. Or, if I would have picked up Ramon Vazquez, I would have gotten some solid offense.

Essentially, I've given up on about 15 R and 15 RBI, which cost me 3 points in the standings, and either those 6 SB w/ Hairston, or a few more R and RBI w/ Vasquez. But I've been able to make up for it by figuring out my pitching staff, and setting myself up for a better run at the championship, to the point where I literally have more points from my pitching than I do from my hitting (which I still plan on getting about 62 points from this year). Additionally, the extra flexibility let me go after Juan Pierre, who has become a regular starter (even before Andruw Jones hurt himself), seems to be hitting reasonably well, in additional stealing bases.

So, my assumption was that the extra roster slot was worth temporarily giving up a few points in the standings, that I would get back once my guys came back. And in the meantime, I'm still maintaining a healthy working margin on the rest of the league, so it seems that my plan has worked out this time. Now, I just need my guys to get back before I continue to lose ground :-)

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Putting the FIrst Quarter Behind Us - Part 3

In the first 2 installments, we looked at Rounds 1-10. If Rounds 1-10 are where draft choices don't necessarily help a single team significantly, but certainly can hurt a team, Rounds 11-15 and beyond can certainly catapult a team up the rankings with a few deft selections. So, in the following analysis, we will review those rounds and make a case for the 5 best picks in the remainder of the rounds (16-22).

Round 11:
Best PIck: IStillSuckCurveBalls - OF, Jacoby Ellsbury
Though Brad Lidge was almost my selection for this round, one could make the case that Brad Lidge was going to be solid anyways. But I think few people thought that Jacoby Ellsbury would be THIS good, even after a very, very good September and October last year. With 19 steals, almost 40 runs and a rediculous OBP around .400, Jacoby Ellsbury is only a few homers short of a Carl Crawford type player with the potential for more runs and definitely a higher OBP. A lot of people would like to pry Ellsbury away from O.D., but at this point, it's going to take a pretty elite (albeit, Boston Red Sox) player to do so.

Worst Pick: Phatsnapper - SP, Rich Hill
I could have also picked Chad Cordero here, but all things being equal, a guy who pitches so bad that he's sent to the minors is probably worse than a guy who's struggling with injuries. Though Rich Hill has the arm and stuff to be a solid #2 pitcher for the rest of his career, it's the stuff between his ears that needs work. His apparent struggles with confidence are his downfall, creating a high WHIP and losses to bad teams. Until he can get this worked out in AAA, he'll be one of those lefties with great stuff without the ability to put it all together on the Major League level.

Round 12
Best Pick: Westy's Slugs - OF, Josh Hamilton
A lot has been written about Hamilton's checkered past, but It appears as though he's put all those ghosts behind him and is living up to his potential. In the race for the AL triple crown, Hamilton is near the top of every category. Right now, he's a 12th round pick playing at 2nd round output. Of course, no one expects him to win the triple crown and keep these kinds of numbers going, but it makes for a nice story, and a very nice pick-up in the 12th round.

Worst Pick: Benver Droncos - C, Kenji Johjima
Catcher is a position where there's really only 5 or so players worthy of any pick before the last few rounds and Kenji Johjima ain't one of them. He's struggled mightily this year and isn't even worth being on a roster. His .563 OPS may be the worst OPS of any starting catcher and he doesn't offer anything in any statistical category. 'Nuff said.

Round 13
Best Pick: IStillSuckCurveballs - 1B, 3B, Kevin Youkalis
Hard to pick between Tim Hudson and Youkalis this round, but I gave the nod to Youkalis. He's hitting at .951 OPS which is stellar and manufactures power and RBI's in a heavy hitting lineup. Add the fact that he has 1B and 3B eligibility and he's an even better pick. So far this year, he's hitting better than other highly touted 1B such as Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira and David Ortiz and 3B Miguel Cabrera and David Wright. I'm pretty sure he won't be ahead of most of these guys in production at the All-Star break, but so far, as Trent from Swingers would say, "He's so money".

Worst Pick: Phatsnapper - RP, Eric Gagne
As the rounds go by, it gets harder to rank who the worst pick was since a lot of these guys are picked based on their upside, but I'll go with Eric Gagne who has been an absolute disaster this year. Nothing like his days in LA, Gagne has suffered through injuries and has never looked the same. Now on the DL, Gagne may not get his spot back this year if anyone of Milwaukee's committee of closers in Mota, Torres and insert other player here do the job. Given how later picks in Soria, Gregg, Percival and Sherrill have done in their roles, this pick was not a good one in hindsight.

Round 14
Best Pick: O.N. Thugs - OF, Pat Burrell
Though the thugs were complaining of not showing enough love to his team, this pick gets the nod over Soria, who has been dynamite. Burrell started out the season one of the hottest hitters in baseball and though he's cooled off a bit, his numbers still make him a top 10 producer in the NL to date. Though I project him to finish around his career numbers, he certainly helped the Thugs make their way to 1st place much earlier in the baseball year.

Worst Pick: Muddy Mud Skipper - SP, Phillip Hughes
I can understand a pick like Hughes at this stage of the draft - stud minor league pitcher, pitching in front of a potent offense. But, Hughes has been miserable. With an ERA of 9.00, a WHIP of over 2 and no wins and to add injury to insult, a trip to the DL, it looks like Hughes may need some more time in the minors before living up to his potential.

Round 15
Best Pick: TheJimmyDixLongballs - SP, Adam Wainwright
There were not a lot of strong picks in this round, so Wainwright gets the nod. He's been consistent this year, posting 4 wins, an ERA around 3 and a decent source of K's. He'll be a solid 3rd or 4th starter on anyone's fantasy roster.

Worst Pick: Benver Droncos - RP, Tony Peña
Almost chose Bronson Arroyo for his pathetic start to the year, but Peña gets the nod for not supplying anything useful all year. Although he was a popular pick to be the closer in Arizona, he hasn't even looked very good in a set-up role. While he could take the closer's role from Lyon if the injury bug hits, Peña is nothing like what he was last year.

They say that the league is won in the later rounds and in free agency so for rounds 16-22, I decided to rank the top 5 picks from those rounds collectively. Here goes:

1. IamJabrone - C, Geovany Soto - two words, POSITION SCARCITY.
2. IamJabrone - SP, Shaun Marcum - almost a K/inning, should have even more wins.
3. O.N. Thugs - RP, B.J. Ryan - blowing away the competition.
4. IamJabrone - RP, George Sherrill - who had heard of this guy before the season?
5. TheJimmyDixLongBalls - RP, Troy Percival - didn't this guy retire already?

Let's hope that my ability to spot talent at the end of the draft can help me move back into a position to battle for 1st place. Feel free to debate.

Time

So, my infatuation with the 1995 Topps All-Star team has gone down a slight notch with the retirement of Mike Piazza.

His story is interesting, of course. Late round draft pick (62nd round), made as a favor to Tommy Lasorda, who was Piazza family friend.

If you look at his stats, you'll see an example of this career arc that I keep talking about. He starts off gangbusters, winning ROY, and taking the league by storm. He was a bit old as a rookie, but just at the edge (historically, HOF type players make an impact in the majors by the time they're 24 - anything older and it becomes tough to accumulate the counting stats you need). These numbers are cut and pasted from baseball-reference.com, which is awesome. The column on the right is OPS+, which is a factor of a player's OPS, compared to the league average. So, in 1993, Piazza's OPS+ of 152 essentially means that his OPS was 52% above the league average. An OPS+ of 100 would mean that you were at the league average, and an OPS+ of 94 would mean that you were 94% of the league average.

Yr Ag  G  AB  R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG *OPS+ 
93 24 149 547 81  174 24  2  35 112  3  4  46  86  .318 .370  .561  152
94 25 107 405 64  129 18  0  24  92  1  3  33  65  .319 .370  .541  140
95 26 112 434 82  150 17  0  32  93  1  0  39  80  .346 .400  .606  172
96 27 148 547 87  184 16  0  36 105  0  3  81  93  .336 .422  .563  166
97 28 152 556 104 201 32  1  40 124  5  1  69  77  .362 .431  .638  185
98 29 151 561 88  184 38  1  32 111  1  0  58  80  .328 .390  .570  152
99 30 141 534 100 162 25  0  40 124  2  2  51  70  .303 .361  .575  134
00 31 136 482 90  156 26  0  38 113  4  2  58  69  .324 .398  .614  155
01 32 141 503 81  151 29  0  36  94  0  2  67  87  .300 .384  .573  147
02 33 135 478 69  134 23  2  33  98  0  3  57  82  .280 .359  .544  137
03 34 68  234 37  67  13  0  11  34  0  0  35  40  .286 .377  .483  126
04 35 129 455 47  121 21  0  20  54  0  0  68  78  .266 .362  .444  108
05 36 113 398 41  100 23  0  19  62  0  0  41  67  .251 .326  .452  104
06 37 126 399 39  113 19  1  22  68  0  0  34  66  .283 .342  .501  122
07 38 83  309 33  85  17  1   8  44  0  0  18  61  .275 .313  .414   96

You'll note a few things. Piazza kept improving until he was 28, culminating in 2 excellent seasons in 1997 and 1998, where he was 2nd in the MVP voting both years. Then, starting at age 29, you have a few plateau years, until the age of 32. Then starting in 2002, at the age of 33, you see the decline start and be accelerated by injuries in 2003. You have to give Piazza credit. He was able to keep from falling off the cliff, so long as he stayed healthy. Even in 2004-06, he still managed to average over 20 HR a season. Last year, the cliff finally came at the age of 38, but really, by the time he hit 34, he was no longer, "Mike Piazza, HOF-level player," but rather "Mike Piazza, Still better with the bat than more catchers."

Also, you see the power stay relatively strong, though the bat speed was deteriorating. However, it's interesting that the OBP stayed high, as the number of walks stayed high. But, even that fell off starting in 2005. The stats here are really indicative of this whole career arc concept that I keep talking about.

So who's next? Maybe Brian McCann. He's not nearly the pure hitter that Piazza was. Maybe Victor Martinez (who is darned good). Probably no one, for a while.

In any case, one more familiar face from my childhood is off to greener pastures.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)