A Thug Walks Into a Pawn Shop...

So, the O.N. Thugs and Westy's Ballers have completed a trade. The O.N. Thugs' response? That it was an odd feeling, like walking into a pawn shop in an alternate universe that had reasonable items on the shelves. They went on to note that perhaps the only thing stranger would be to complete a trade with C-Lauff. Westy's response? That C-Lauff would never complete a trade with a competitive team. Ouch. C-Lauff's response? He thought it was a strange trade, that the O.N. Thugs would win the trade this year, but that the jury would be out for the future.

I don't know how strange it is. Obviously, for a team that's in title contention, winning a given trade for that year is a must, unless there's a young superstar involved (think Blake Griffin or something like that). And doing so without gutting the keeper base generally makes the trade a win. As for a rebuilding team, the goal is to get value for older veterans that are borderline keepers, to get younger, and to get likely multiple-year keepers. I think that both teams got what they wanted.

The trade basically went like this. Westy wanted Conley, as an emerging top 10-12 PG, and top 50 player, and someone who the "advanced stats" have always loved. Remember, how he drafted Conley last year, instead of Tyreke Evans? And then he dropped Conley, only to have him start playing well for the O.N. Thugs? And then let Conley slide to the O.N. Thugs in the 4th round of the draft this year, only to have him emerge with a career year? Well, the theory is that Westy wanted to correct that. Given that the O.N. Thugs actually had Conley as their 3rd PG, this was a distinct possibility. The initial offer from Westy was for some bland bench players (think someone like Jamal Crawford, who we've talked about being a non-O.N. Thugs sort of guy here before), which wasn't to the O.N. Thugs liking.

The O.N. Thugs responded with an offer for Al Jefferson in a 1-for-1, but noted that they'd also go for Millsap.


Player A: .453/.767, 15.1 PTS, 1.0 3PM, 7.0 AST, 3.1 REB, 2.1 STL, 2.547 A/TO
Player B: .469/.851, 16.5, 8.8 REB, 2.0 OREB, 1.8 AST, 0.5 STL, 1.7 BLK, 1.438 A/TO
Player C: .550/.725, 17.9 PTS, 8.1 REB, 2.2 OREB, 2.4 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.771 A/TO

The logic was that Conley (Player A) and Jefferson (Player B) had similar scoring, similar percentages, and that Millsap (Player C) was close enough to Jefferson, though he didn't qualify at C. Conely is a plus STL, AST and A/TO guy, and gives you some 3PM. The Thugs needed REB, OREB, BLK, and wanted some FG% in return, if they were going to move Conley.

As a total aside, there was also a secret, illogical reason for the request for Jefferson/Millsap. The O.N. Thugs wanted to have a 2nd good Jazz player on their roster so that they could enjoy watching Jazz games more (since the Jazz have become one of the Thugs' favorite real-life teams, now that D-Will is out there). In the original UPL Keeper Draft, the O.N. Thugs even chose Carlos Boozer over Dwight Howard for the reason that watching D-Will/Boozer for the next few years would be more fun/time-efficient. Yeah. Sometimes, trades work like that.

Westy balked at the 1 for 1, and countered with an improvement from his initial offer that included Tyson Chandler, but still was an awkward 2-for 1 deal for the O.N. Thugs' roster to take, and wasn't enough value to overwhelm the roster makeup.

The O.N. Thugs were intrigued at the possibility of reacquiring Chandler, a valuable part of O.N. Thugs championships in years past, and offered Cousins for Chandler, as a youth for veteran help now, which seems to be a fair deal, based on UPL moves in the past.

It seemed that Westy was OK with the Cousins/Chandler move, but it became clear that Westy still wanted Conley. Last last night, the offer of Cousins for Chandler, plus Conley for Millsap, plus Gallinari for Pierce was offered. If you put together the events from earlier in the negotiations (Westy's refusal to move Millsap for Conley; Cousins for Chandler seeming like a reasonable trade), the conclusion is that Gallinari has more value that Pierce. And if you look at the stats, both have awfully similar stats this year:

Player A: .400/.909, 15.3 PTS, 2.0 3PM, 4.9 REB, 0.9 OREB, 1.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.5 BLK, 2.048 A/TO
Player B: .497/.843, 18 PTS, 1.1 3PM, 4.7 REB, 0.3 OREB, 2.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.575 A/TO

The key issue is that Gallinari's 11 years younger (and is Player A, above). In fact, across the entire trade, Westy picks up Conley (23), Gallinari (22), and Cousins (20), whereas the O.N. Thugs get Millsap (25), Chandler (30), and Pierce (33).

Of course, this is just the start of trading season. As teams figure out if they're rebuilding (i.e., Sparty) or contending (SMDB), a little more certainty will emerge. And somehow, the O.N. Thugs will keep finding ways to improve their team to make their annual late-season run at the title.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

OT: Baseball Winter Meetings - A tale of Two Sox

Okay, so while I stare at the Bears/Pats game and obsess over the first week of the UPL - Who the F-ck Is Anne Frank? playoffs I figured I'd contribute something to the site and write up a bit on the early returns from the Hot Stove League on behalf of the two footwear-themed teams.

WINNERS:
The "Beantown Bombers"
Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and the rest of the Boston Red Sox lineup. Gonzo in particular looks to have an upgrade from both the ballpark and lineup, as he might actually have to be pitched to next year while also having runners on base. Crawford's upgrade probably wont be as marked, but means he should maintain his value for some time. Youk's value will go up slightly, as the time he'll see at 3B should qualify him for the position in the following year as well as reaping the benefits of the lineup. Its a good month to be OD. Or an Adrian Gonzalez owner.

The "South Side Hit Men, Part II"
The Chicago White Sox needed an offensive upgrade over last year's rotating DH model. While there will always be a bit of a disconnect between the true value and fantasy value of a player, Mark Kotsay proved that sometimes you can have neither but still eat up a great deal of at-bats. To remedy this the Sox added Dunn, and what they hope is his slugging RBI lefty bat. In a move that Keith Law hated on, but that was the most obvious in retrospect, they also locked up what they hope are the last few productive years of Paul Konerko. If the Sox can find a way to upgrade their bullpen without trading Quentin, the Sox could field a lineup that looks something like this...

LF - Pierre
SS - Alexei Ramirez
CF - Rios
DH - Dunn
1B - Konerko
RF - Quentin
C - AJ
2B - Beckham
3B- Morel

Dont bet on Morel producing like Mark Reynolds, he's a contact hitter with plus baserunning skills, but considering that Pierre's RBI weapon is a bunt or a contact swing which led to double-play more often than not. Personally I'm hoping that combined with a solid-bounce back year this means Beckham produces like a true keeper.

And the Bears are getting destroyed by the Patriots, which is depressing me beyond my ability to continue this post. Bear down.