UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 11

And we're back from break. As we keep moving forward in the lottery, some thoughts related to the major news that the '90 Reds have beat the odds and will be selecting in the top 3 of the drafts: Who's going to be unkept? Where does someone like Stephen Strasburg (who's eligible to be drafted) go? What sort of strategy will we see in the first couple rounds? Obviously, we'll have more to say about this once keepers are announced in a few weeks. But until then...

The 11th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Westy's Sluggers

History: Traditionally a top-half UPL franchise, but a relative lack of success, with 4 podium finishes (one 2nd and three 3rd place finishes).

Tendencies: Westy's Pawn Shop was an early UPL comedy device that has stood the test of time, due to the lowball offers that keep coming from Westy (and draw some amusing responses).

2009 Result: 3rd place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Chase Utley, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, Raul Ibanez, Russell Branyan, Nate McLouth

Pitching Locks: John Lackey, Jon Lester, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, Jair Jurrjens

Probable Keepers: Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Alex Rios, Stephen Drew, Howie Kendrick, Leo Nunez, Matt Garza, Scott Baker

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Utley, Berkman, and Holliday give you a lot of certainty on offense, and should combine for something like .395/.510, and on the low end, give you 80HR, 285 R, 285 RBI and 30 SB. Strong depth in OF, which should provide trade fodder. Bobby Abreu had a very nice 2009, despite his power being off, and contributed 30 SB.

Offensive Question Marks: Nate McLouth and Alex Rios were really off last season. Bounce back seasons from these guys will be helpful since... Torii Hunter, Raul Ibanez and Russell Branyan duplicating their numbers from is a big question. There should be enough depth so that the offense will stay strong, and if everyone comes through, this team will have a lot of pieces to trade. As with most teams, there is a lack of quality at SS and C. And if Branyan doesn't replicate his 2009, and instead plays to his career average, 3B could be a problem area.

Pitching Strengths: Depth at SP. The names of the SP all sound really good. But each of them has questions surrounding them...

Pitching Question Marks: How will Lackey adjust to Boston? Has Lester made The Leap? How will Webb come back from injury? Is Big Z's drop off the last couple years the new reality? Can Jurrjens replicate his success year-to-year? If the results are more good than bad, then the starting pitching will be strong. However, if it's more bad then good, then it will be tough - it's hard to give up on these sorts of names, and you can easily keep trotting these guys out for 4 or 5 more starts than you should. And these are the "lock" keepers. How do Garza and Baker develop? Garza appears to have a high ceiling, but had a bad 2009. Baker doesn't have as high a ceiling as Garza, but was good enough last year. And we haven't even gotten to the major issue. This team has no closers, save for Leo Nunez. Fernando Rodney managed to get 37 SV last year, but he'll be setting up Fuentes with LAA this year.

2010 Outlook: The decision to either a) give up on SV, or to b) try to trade for SV should be made early, and will influence early season moves. This team overachieved on offense last year, so expecting that level of performance again may be a bit of a stretch. But the offense should be good in 2010. Westy managed to make some solid moves to improve the SP, and if everything falls right, this will be a top 3 team. However, if things don't all fall right, something like a 7th place finish isn't out of the question. Best guess? We'll split the difference, and predict a 4th place finish.

When we come back, we'll announce the 10th pick of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)