The Sins of the Past

Recently, longtime UPL owner Jeff posed the question of why his team was so bad:

Jeff: Why does IamJabberjaw's team suck so badly? Please, help me!

Naturally, this had to become a UPL post.

My thoughts:

Dear Jeff,

My friend, you are paying for sins of years past. Well, last year's, past...er... sins... yeah.

Last year, you got really, really unlucky with your first 2 picks (Brand and Baron Davis). Your 3rd round pick was Calderon, who was traded for Okeafor, who you ended up not keeping (but has been pretty decent this year). Your 4th pick was J-Rich who has been really disappointing in PHX. Your 5th pick was Okur, whose numbers have also been way off the last 2 years. Your 6th pick was Biedrins, who you've since let go, and who was running the Nellie Curse. And your best draft pick was Derrick Rose in the 8th, who you traded for Eric Gordon (a good keeper) and Michael Beasley (who you didn't keep, probably rightly so).

So not only did you get unlucky with the top two (who you need to anchor a team), you're 4th, 5th, and 6th picks have underachieved. And you probably made a bad trade moving D-Rose.

This means, that coming into this year, you were already stuck behind the 8-ball. Normally, when you fill up your list of 8 keepers, there are a couple players that are absolutely obvious (think, LBJ, Wade, Kobe, Dirk, etc.) - the guys who would be drafted in the first 2 rounds of a non-keeper league. You didn't have any of those guys, so you started at a huge disadvantage. Instead, you had about 10 guys who would have been picked between the 4th and 10th round of a non-keeper draft. That makes it really hard to win this year.

But there's good news. You have a chance, moving forward, to right the ship.

Brooks, Ariza, and Landry have been pretty good for HOU, especially w/ them giving up on T-Mac. That's a good thing for you. Brooks and Ariza probably stay really strong when Yao comes back, though Landry's value next year may go down. Count this was a win.

You made a strong trade for Joakim Noah, who's looking to be a 3rd round pick in non-keeper drafts next year, and is probably your best big. This also counts as a win for you. Your other strong big is Al Harrington, who puts up nice numbers in the Knicks system (18.5 and 6, with some 3PM). So he alleviates pressure on your 3PM. In fact, you have a lot of excess 3PM to trade. You should definitely try to do that.

Eric Gordon's proving himself to be a legit pro, and is a good 3PM guy. That's also good. He's a keeper. Now, you also have a couple other players who are a lot like Eric Gordon, in fantasy terms (Ben Gordon, J-Rich, Jamal Crawford). Can you get any value from these guys? Ben Gordon's the most reliable of the bunch, but is stuck in a strange Detroit situation. J-Rich has a ton of upside, but is the 3rd or 4th option in PHX (behind Nash, Amare, and probably Grant Hill) Crawford is playing well, but comes off the bench.

You've got a couple bigs you have to make decisions on in Nene and Okur. And similarly, you have to figure out what to do with Bibby, Harden, and Morrow.

Now, it should be clear where your rosters is anchored: Eric Gordon, Joakim Noah, Aaron Brooks, and probably Trevor Ariza. The efficiency is suspect, but your hustle stats will be solid. This leaves 4 slots, give or take, and you still need to fill with keepers. The thing to remember is that when you're drafting next year, you're drafting no worse than a 9th rounder. So, the goal is to get as many players who should be 8th round picks or better.

This means, that as the season progresses, players may get dropped because they're hurt. You need to be all over that (for example, if someone like T-Mac or Yao gets dropped, they're great to have on your roster, since you have a ton of flexibility). This also means that you should continue working the trade game, big time. There are definitely teams that could use some 3PM, in the form of Ben Gordon, J-Rich, Crawford, Okur, or maybe even Bibby. You should target younger players with high ceilings, even if they haven't achieved a ton, yet. Basically, you need to hit a home run or two, and it doesn't really matter that much if you strike out. Guys like Gordon, Crawford, etc. will be available in the draft next year.

I think that overall, the question that anyone has to ask themselves is if their team is building or if their team is contending, because there are two very different strategies for these two scenarios. (Note, there could very well be more than these 2 modes, but let's keep things simple for now). If you're building, your goal is to maximize the number of obvious keepers on your roster. If you're contending, you're shopping for parts. So, if you're a builder, then you need to market your parts faster than the other builders, and you need to look for potential keepers in return.

For example, if you offer the Jabrones, say, Ben Gordon for Gilbert Arenas or Anthony Randolph, he may look you up on that. Your roster is in a much better spot to take on a question mark than his is. He's looking to win a title (however misguided that attempt is), so he may sell a piece of the future for a shot now, if it gives him roster flexibility. Take advantage of that.

Best of luck in your future endeavors.

Warmest regards,
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)