This has been a rough season for both my UPL Team and my favorite team, the Chicago White Sox, and it strikes me that its just about do-or-die time to make some trades for both teams but the question is the same - Contenders or Rebuilders? Buying or Selling? Neither I or the Sox have figured it out yet. Ok, maybe Kenny Williams already made up his mind, but I haven't yet.
While technical difficulties have plagued me this spring - an internet that would work slow one week, fine the next, but not at all the following 10 days led to an angry call to Comcast and cancelled internet service - what's really killed me were the mistakes I made in the draft. In that draft, I overdid it on starting pitchers but failed to pick up closers, figuring that I could trade off some of the starting arms for the saves I'd need once they got rolling. And then the season started and my starting pitching got murdered, just about every one of my guys got roughed up and that plan ceased to be viable.
So with my team's spot in the bottom 1/4 of the standings all but assured, the question comes up of what to do with this team in order to not be so far down in the standings next year. If nothing else, I think that the UPL's inaugural keeper league year will yield even more unique and interesting trade offers as time goes by. So I'll put out the question - are you buying or selling? Is this the year, or is it time to stock up and wait for the moment to get your 2010 champs ready?
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About the UPL
The Urbana Premier League is a group of friends, and friends of friends, and eventually friends of friends of friends, who have been waging fantasy sports (baseball, football, and basketball) wars since 2001.
Why a blog? We've had a number of interesting discussions that got lost at the end of each season (and also once other postings replace the 100 postings that Yahoo! keeps on record). And, some of our owners are in other fantasy leagues, so maybe we can use some collective group-think to help out our UPL brethren. This blog gives us a place to talk about those issues a little further.
Why a blog? We've had a number of interesting discussions that got lost at the end of each season (and also once other postings replace the 100 postings that Yahoo! keeps on record). And, some of our owners are in other fantasy leagues, so maybe we can use some collective group-think to help out our UPL brethren. This blog gives us a place to talk about those issues a little further.
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7 comments:
Part of the equation is how much you value, say, a 4th place finish? If you value finishing in the top half of the league, I'd say play it out. Personally, if I don't win, I think that the season's been a failure. So, I'd actually consider dealing spare parts if I'm convinced that I'm out of it. However, I had a ridiculous comeback in basketball this year (going from 10th, out of 11, into the championship in about 7 weeks), so that may skew my views a bit.
If you are looking to rebuild, then who do you try to trade away? And what do you try to trade for? Looking down your list, you keepers look something like this:
Pitchers:
Jenks
Shields
Buehrle
Zambrano
Cliff Lee
Weaver
Volquez
Hitters:
McCann
Kinsler
Longoria
Cruz
Ramirez
Loney
Maybes:
D-Lee
Young
Morales
Cuddyer
Danks
Millwood
Floyd
When you build, you sell off one of your older stars, in return for some prospects. A quick glance down your roster suggests that most of your keepers are going to be young. I think that only D-Lee fits the bill. Maybe Cliff Lee. And maybe you can get value for Cuddyer.
No one's going to trade you a star under 30 for any of those guys. So, you're looking for guys with potential that are under 26. And you want to look for teams that are making a run at the top. So that probably limits you to the top half of the league. But see if there's anyone that you want that's a reserve right now.
The goal is to get a 2 for 1 sort of deal. Maybe someone like Stephen Drew on the '90 Reds is available. The Jabrones have Liriano or Bucholz on the pitching side, and Chris Davis or Jay Bruce may be available. ISSC has Brandon Morrow. Westy has Matt Garza who could be worth a deal.
There were a few years where I tried drafting elite starting pitching early with the hopes of dominating the pitching categories and trading some pitchers away for other stats I would need. That strategy didn't work out for me, either.
Also, while I agree you're facing quite an uphill battle to win this year, it's still hard to say where your team will finish. If your players all get hot at the same time and the JimmyDix get on a roll, who knows how high you could climb? I think "Shut Your Pujols" a few years back was toward the bottom in June, then his team went nuts and took the lead by one point in September only to finally cough it up at the end...
When I look at your roster, I don't think you're far away from competing. You just need some bullpen help, a little more luck, and a few less ChiSox. ;-)
You should see my other league... Konerko, Thome, Beckham, Dye and Floyd.
Oddly enough, I'm leading that one. There's a significant disparity in skill between leagues.
Greg definitely has a point. I've had some ridiculous comebacks in the last few years in baseball and basketball, so it's definitely possible. You've got a nice core of starters. You need one or two closers, and may need to give up one of them. Actually, Millwood could be a perfect player to trade, since he's a great 1-year rental this year, but a borderline keeper.
So, if I pick up Beckham on waivers, will we get a deal done for Volquez?
You wish dude. Fuentes
Whoa. Fuentes? He's only leading the league in saves. Plus, the Reds just shut Volquez's rehab down. I may be the only one that puts any value on Volquez right now, and that's because I'm a homer...
Well, I assumed that it'd be more than a 1:1 deal....
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