Sunday, February 22, 2009
Keeper Baseball - Talking Strategy
Starting a conversation about draft strategy in a keeper league feels like a doomed endeavor, but I'll take a shot at it. As the UPL Baseball league makes this transition, I was wondering if I could get some feedback abt drafting strategies, and how they may have changed.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
General Dynamics
(Note: literally 5 minutes after I posted this, I realized that just talked myself into picking up Raja Bell, in favor of Nick Collison).
One very interesting question that arises with a keeper league is, "What do I do if one of my keepers (or future keepers) gets hurt?" Obviously, with expanded rosters, it's possible to hang on to one injured player, if the rest of your team is healthy. But once the injury bug starts to hit, roster management becomes an art form... or least a highwire act.
Westy currently has a bit of a dilemma. Currently, he's in 2nd place, as we head into the all-star break. But really, he's in first, if you consider the fact that the guy currently in 1st has played way too many games, and will fall quite a bit. If things play out as expected, he's going to be in the top 3, at the very worst, and has a fair shot to win the league. That is, until his 1st round pick and franchise cornerstone Al Jefferson went out with an ACL injury.
So what are the options? Stay pat, use free agency, or make a trade. Here's the current roster, with season averages.
You don't give up 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks a game w/out losing something. Who's the current replacement? Looking at numbers over the last month, the top choice for Westy is probably Travis Outlaw, who goes 15 points, 4.8 boards, and 0.9 block a game. Other options in free agency include Raja Bell, who goes has been 16.5 points and 4.4 boards, and 3.1 assists in the last month and Antonio McDyess, who goes 7 points and 9.3 boards a game. The problem is if you go free agency, you have to drop someone. Well, that isn't really a big problem for Westy, since he's got Shane Battier's sorry ass on his team. But you can see my point. If you had a team full of good players and prospects, you'd have a serious decision to make.
Bearing in mind that there are roughly 30 games left in the season for each player, if you just stick w/ Outlaw, then you lose roughly 240 points, 185 rebounds, and 25 blocks. If you go with Raja, you lose 195 points, 200 rebounds, and 50 blocks (but pick up 45 assists). If you go with McDyess, you lose 480 points, 50 rebounds, 40 blocks. If you keep playing Shane Battier, then it's even uglier... So, can you afford to just work the waiver wire or do nothing? Maybe.
Currently, if you look at the impact of those losses, you see there there is definitely an impact on fantasy scoring. The points would result in a shift of up to 5 fantasy points. The rebounds could result in a shift of 4 fantasy points, and the blocks could impact up to 3 points. Granted, those are worst case scenarios, but staying pat could realistically lead to a shift of 6 to 8 fantasy points, which puts Sparty and OD as the front runners. And let's just say that there's a traditionally strong team hovering in the middle of the pack that's about to get really hot. So if you stay pat, it's not looking too good.
So can you trade? Maybe. But who to move? That depends on who your keepers are. You have to figure that the potential keepers on this roster are Big Al, AI (2.0), KG, Caron, Truth, Augustin, Deng, Devin Harris, and Nene. Other players of value are Duhon and Outlaw. Can you get anything done with Duhon and Outlaw? I don't know if I see much better than what's available in free agency. Maybe you can get someone who's desperate for assists, but if you move Duhon, and only replace it with 4 assists per game, you're looking at losing 120 assists, as well, which is a potential 3 fantasy point loss, which has to be considered. Maybe you package one of your potential keepers with Outlaw (probably Nene or Deng, if I was guessing), but I'm not sure what you get back...
Basically, this is a really tough decision. Perhaps, Westy summed it up best in one of his fantasy posts:
"I am in big trouble."
I think that I agree. I think that biggest problem is the lack of quality in the 12-14 slots, which doesn't really allow for much flexibility.
I'm in a very similar situation with Carlos Boozer (who will end up missing 40 or so games). I think that the best way to weather this sort of storm, is to make sure that you have the depth to make a move. Which means that you have to either draft perfect, or be good/lucky in free agency. I've been able to be good/lucky a number of times, particularly with Brook Lopez, Rodney Stuckey, and now Nick Collison and Tyrus Thomas. Lopez has turned into a reliable 14 and 9 sort of guy who blocks shots, and scores efficiently, and is going to be one of my keepers. Rodney Stuckey (a likely keeper) was looking really good, and has been a fixture in the starting lineup in Detroit. Nick Collison (not a keeper) has been a reasonable stopgap. And Tyrus Thomas is on a tear, and may have finally figured out how to play in this league (and may actually end up being a keeper). So I definitely was good/lucky.
Where this was beneficial is that it gave me the depth to make a move. I was able to flip Rodney Stuckey (who was a likely keeper) and Richard Jefferson (one of my solid vets, and a borderline keeper) for David West (a definite keeper), who shored up my rebounding.
Of course, the question on my end is whether or not I actually weathered the storm.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
One very interesting question that arises with a keeper league is, "What do I do if one of my keepers (or future keepers) gets hurt?" Obviously, with expanded rosters, it's possible to hang on to one injured player, if the rest of your team is healthy. But once the injury bug starts to hit, roster management becomes an art form... or least a highwire act.
Westy currently has a bit of a dilemma. Currently, he's in 2nd place, as we head into the all-star break. But really, he's in first, if you consider the fact that the guy currently in 1st has played way too many games, and will fall quite a bit. If things play out as expected, he's going to be in the top 3, at the very worst, and has a fair shot to win the league. That is, until his 1st round pick and franchise cornerstone Al Jefferson went out with an ACL injury.
| Rank | Team | Points | Pts Change | Waiver | Moves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | European Sellout | 80.5 | 0 | 8 | 5 | |
| 2. | Westy's Ballers | 78.5 | -1 | 1 | 8 | |
| 3. | Sparty Rules | 76 | 1 | 9 | 1 | |
| 4. | Dribbling Balls | 70.5 | 0.5 | 7 | 2 | |
| 5. | Floor burns | 58.5 | -0.5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 6. | chowtime | 57.5 | 0 | 6 | 7 | |
| 7. | O.N. Thugs | 57 | -1 | 5 | 11 | |
| 8. | IamJabrone | 56 | 1 | 11 | 20 | |
| 9. | Eddy's Crusty Towels | 48.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 3 | |
| 10. | Love Timberwolves | 44.5 | 0 | 4 | - | |
| 11. | Phatsnapper | 32.5 | 2.5 | 10 | 1 |
So what are the options? Stay pat, use free agency, or make a trade. Here's the current roster, with season averages.
| Player | GP | FG% | FT% | 3PTM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T |
| D.J. Augustin | 41 | 0.409 | 0.912 | 1.6 | 12.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 2.012 |
| Andre Iguodala | 50 | 0.473 | 0.745 | 0.9 | 17.8 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.921 |
| Paul Pierce | 53 | 0.45 | 0.851 | 1.5 | 19.5 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.356 |
| Luol Deng | 41 | 0.452 | 0.807 | 0.1 | 14.5 | 1.7 | 6.1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.379 |
| Kevin Garnett | 50 | 0.525 | 0.836 | 0 | 16.5 | 1.4 | 9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.607 |
| Caron Butler | 47 | 0.451 | 0.86 | 1 | 20.4 | 1.9 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.331 |
| Luis Scola | 52 | 0.526 | 0.733 | 0 | 12.2 | 2.2 | 8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.928 |
| Nene Hilario | 51 | 0.612 | 0.73 | 0 | 14.7 | 2.5 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.755 |
| Devin Harris | 47 | 0.441 | 0.819 | 0.9 | 21.8 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.284 |
| Shane Battier | 30 | 0.383 | 0.864 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Chris Duhon | 51 | 0.424 | 0.864 | 1.7 | 12.5 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 8 | 1 | 0.1 | 2.833 |
| Al Jefferson | 50 | 0.497 | 0.738 | 0 | 23.1 | 3.4 | 11 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.859 |
| Travis Outlaw | 49 | 0.445 | 0.697 | 1.2 | 12.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.912 |
| Mike Miller | 42 | 0.472 | 0.697 | 1.1 | 9.1 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.229 |
You don't give up 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks a game w/out losing something. Who's the current replacement? Looking at numbers over the last month, the top choice for Westy is probably Travis Outlaw, who goes 15 points, 4.8 boards, and 0.9 block a game. Other options in free agency include Raja Bell, who goes has been 16.5 points and 4.4 boards, and 3.1 assists in the last month and Antonio McDyess, who goes 7 points and 9.3 boards a game. The problem is if you go free agency, you have to drop someone. Well, that isn't really a big problem for Westy, since he's got Shane Battier's sorry ass on his team. But you can see my point. If you had a team full of good players and prospects, you'd have a serious decision to make.
Bearing in mind that there are roughly 30 games left in the season for each player, if you just stick w/ Outlaw, then you lose roughly 240 points, 185 rebounds, and 25 blocks. If you go with Raja, you lose 195 points, 200 rebounds, and 50 blocks (but pick up 45 assists). If you go with McDyess, you lose 480 points, 50 rebounds, 40 blocks. If you keep playing Shane Battier, then it's even uglier... So, can you afford to just work the waiver wire or do nothing? Maybe.
Currently, if you look at the impact of those losses, you see there there is definitely an impact on fantasy scoring. The points would result in a shift of up to 5 fantasy points. The rebounds could result in a shift of 4 fantasy points, and the blocks could impact up to 3 points. Granted, those are worst case scenarios, but staying pat could realistically lead to a shift of 6 to 8 fantasy points, which puts Sparty and OD as the front runners. And let's just say that there's a traditionally strong team hovering in the middle of the pack that's about to get really hot. So if you stay pat, it's not looking too good.
So can you trade? Maybe. But who to move? That depends on who your keepers are. You have to figure that the potential keepers on this roster are Big Al, AI (2.0), KG, Caron, Truth, Augustin, Deng, Devin Harris, and Nene. Other players of value are Duhon and Outlaw. Can you get anything done with Duhon and Outlaw? I don't know if I see much better than what's available in free agency. Maybe you can get someone who's desperate for assists, but if you move Duhon, and only replace it with 4 assists per game, you're looking at losing 120 assists, as well, which is a potential 3 fantasy point loss, which has to be considered. Maybe you package one of your potential keepers with Outlaw (probably Nene or Deng, if I was guessing), but I'm not sure what you get back...
Basically, this is a really tough decision. Perhaps, Westy summed it up best in one of his fantasy posts:
"I am in big trouble."
I think that I agree. I think that biggest problem is the lack of quality in the 12-14 slots, which doesn't really allow for much flexibility.
I'm in a very similar situation with Carlos Boozer (who will end up missing 40 or so games). I think that the best way to weather this sort of storm, is to make sure that you have the depth to make a move. Which means that you have to either draft perfect, or be good/lucky in free agency. I've been able to be good/lucky a number of times, particularly with Brook Lopez, Rodney Stuckey, and now Nick Collison and Tyrus Thomas. Lopez has turned into a reliable 14 and 9 sort of guy who blocks shots, and scores efficiently, and is going to be one of my keepers. Rodney Stuckey (a likely keeper) was looking really good, and has been a fixture in the starting lineup in Detroit. Nick Collison (not a keeper) has been a reasonable stopgap. And Tyrus Thomas is on a tear, and may have finally figured out how to play in this league (and may actually end up being a keeper). So I definitely was good/lucky.
Where this was beneficial is that it gave me the depth to make a move. I was able to flip Rodney Stuckey (who was a likely keeper) and Richard Jefferson (one of my solid vets, and a borderline keeper) for David West (a definite keeper), who shored up my rebounding.
Of course, the question on my end is whether or not I actually weathered the storm.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
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