tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6405472704631402653.post7549647472997679065..comments2023-05-07T04:20:13.670-05:00Comments on The UPL Blog: The Current (?) and Future (?) KingChairmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02042114331279771820noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6405472704631402653.post-69659375223658050632009-07-27T00:38:38.366-05:002009-07-27T00:38:38.366-05:00Greg - don't get me wrong. This ain't roc...Greg - don't get me wrong. This ain't rocket science. <br /><br />But I think that there's a bit of a balance between art and science when you are trying assess your team (more specifically, to figure out whether or not your team has the goods to win), and then to figuring out how to execute. In regard to using vets that get hurt, you're walking a tightrope. You have to stay active, and keep rotating people on and off the DL. And you'll probably end up with at least one major hole that you have to address with a trade (unless you get lucky in free agency). <br /><br />And I think that this is where the difference between observation and understanding the psyche comes into play. If you're just observing, you'll see that you have to make a trade at some point. I'd argue that what more interesting is how you make that trade happen, seeing how that trade emerges. I think that the trades that I managed to get done really shored up holes on my team, but were done with legit win-win scenarios.Chairmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02042114331279771820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6405472704631402653.post-32689323445998919242009-07-26T18:08:11.186-05:002009-07-26T18:08:11.186-05:00If you were to track someone's behavior, you g...<i>If you were to track someone's behavior, you get the biggest chunk of information. However, I'd argue that the "next level" sort of understanding comes from understanding why/how someone does the analysis.</i><br /><br />That is true. But I do think there are many cases where it's not too hard to guess the reasoning. For instance, I think it was 2003 when I noticed that you always had your DL slots full. Once I noticed that trend, I quickly guessed the reason: to maximize your team's roster space and potential. There's no penalty for keeping 2 injured players in your DL slots at all times, and who knows, when they get back to health they might contribute to your team. Or they might make a nice "throw-in" for a trade,etc. (Actually, at the time I noticed other UPL players were doing the same thing maximizing their DL slots, so I was probably one of the last ones to that party!)<br /><br />And in fairness, I don't pretend to know all of your approaches to fantasy baseball. I've only been able to incorporate the ones that I *think* I understand. The area where I've made the biggest improvement is that I don't discriminate against the older players the way I used to. I remember back in the early days I would see you pick up Frank Thomas and think to myself, "Frank's best days are behind him and besides, he'll probably get hurt." And sure, maybe 5 or 6 weeks later he would end up on the 15-day DL and I'd feel vindicated. But what I had been missing was the fact that for 5 or 6 weeks Thomas had put up close to .400/.500 numbers. (Maybe not the same HR and RBI totals as '93, but still a nice addition to a competitive fantasy team.) If you look at my 2007 team, I drafted a lot of older guys who I wouldn't have traditionally drafted in the past (Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, Magglio Ordonez, Hideki Matsui, and Jorge Posada are a few that come to mind). As for this year's draft, I drafted some older players who have had excellent careers and some very good track records in recent years for being healthy and productive (Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, and Javier Vazquez come to mind--yeah Manny and Beltran haven't been there as much as I would like, but when they've been in the lineup they've produced).<br /><br />I see that Harden managed pitch well for 6 innings in a day game today. As a Cubs fan, I hope he keeps it up. But if you check his career splits, you'll see the following for day/night (although his day stats will slightly improve based on today's performance):<br /><br />Day 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP<br />Night 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP<br /><br />Furthermore, if you look year by year, you'll see that he pitches better during the day than during the night each year except his first. In fairness, last yeer he pitched awesome both during the night and during the day. But most years his days numbers are average at best.<br /><br />In any case, I do agree that Harden's numbers should be improving this year (even during the day). But if I recall, I think he has some type of chronic injury in his shoulder. So it's hard to know if/when that might resurface.Greg McConnellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17504912601218236507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6405472704631402653.post-40029508829363185842009-07-25T14:30:37.595-05:002009-07-25T14:30:37.595-05:00Greg - my thought is this. If you were to track so...Greg - my thought is this. If you were to track someone's behavior, you get the biggest chunk of information. However, I'd argue that the "next level" sort of understanding comes from understanding why/how someone does the analysis. Of course, who knows how good my analysis actually is.<br /><br />As for Harden. Is it the day/night split or the home/away split? I've believed in the ballpark differences more than the time of day difference. But since the Cubs play so many home day games... it's sort of moot. And I'm also a believer that he'll get the ship straightened out, so I'll keep trotting him out there...Chairmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02042114331279771820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6405472704631402653.post-67650911133508504152009-07-25T14:29:50.766-05:002009-07-25T14:29:50.766-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02764850318509018781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6405472704631402653.post-61239933119685610842009-07-25T11:22:18.880-05:002009-07-25T11:22:18.880-05:00I think that I've done a reasonably nice job o...<i>I think that I've done a reasonably nice job offering insight into my UPL-psyche here, and I sort of wonder if it hasn't hurt me a little bit in the UPL.</i><br /><br />Admittedly, I've picked up many tips from you over the years. However, I think the major ones have come by watching your drafting, daily roster moves, and transactions. You can probably chalk it up to "actions speak louder than words," and I do think I've previously mentioned on my blog that after you won 4 consecutive baseball titles I decided it would be a good idea to--as best I could--reverse engineer all your moves in order to understand your overall strategy. So I'd say 90% of what you've taught me is through real-life examples, and about 10% is what I've read on your various blog posts. <br /><br />BTW, obviously I picked up tips from you prior to 2006, but I'd say 2006 was the first time I admitted to myself that I absolutely needed to "Let go, and let Gau."<br /><br />Regarding Harden, well, I'll just ask this: Do you know what his Day/Nights splits are? (Apparently Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella finally figured this out about three weeks ago.)Greg McConnellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17504912601218236507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6405472704631402653.post-43310990517670650072009-07-17T02:06:42.740-05:002009-07-17T02:06:42.740-05:00That may be. But as long he keeps racking up SV w...That may be. But as long he keeps racking up SV w/out getting killed out there, he'll hang around.<br /><br />What's interesting is that Peavy may not come back, which means that I'll be carrying both Peavy and Sheets. That definitely reduces the roster flexibility...<br /><br />However, Harden came out strong. So hopefully, he's straightened out, and ready to make a run.Chairmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02042114331279771820noreply@blogger.com